Bałtyk Koszalin vs Stargard Szczeciński: match statistics

Stargard Szczeciński have produced better attacking numbers in recent weeks, scoring 14 goals in five matches compared with Bałtyk Koszalin’s 7. The visitors also create more away from home, averaging 11.5 shots and 3.5 on target per match, compared with the hosts’ 9.33 shots and 3 on target. Their average of 2.33 goals scored away from home is significantly higher than Bałtyk’s 1.00, while the hosts allow opponents chances worth an average of 1.77 xG. The main concern for the visitors is their defense, as they concede 2.33 goals per away match and are yet to keep a clean sheet. Despite their poor away run, greater efficiency and better points form over the last five rounds—1.8 points per match compared with 1.6—give Stargard a slight advantage.

The signal for both teams to score is very strong, as Bałtyk Koszalin and Stargard Szczeciński both have a 100% BTTS rate this season, and neither team has kept a clean sheet. The hosts score an average of 2.25 goals and concede 2.00, while the visitors score 2.33 goals and concede as many as 2.33. In their last five matches, Stargard recorded BTTS in 100% of games, scoring an average of 2.8 goals and conceding 2.4, which clearly points towards an open game. Over the same period, Bałtyk averaged 1.4 goals, with an xG of 1.43 compared to 1.84 xG against Stargard, so both teams should create enough chances. Further confirmation comes from the league BTTS average of 75%, as well as the fact that matches featuring at least three goals and both teams scoring account for 75% of Bałtyk’s games and 100% of Stargard’s.

The profile of both teams clearly points to a goals market: Bałtyk score an average of 2.25 goals, while Stargard average 2.33, with the league average standing at 3.81 goals per match. Each team has surpassed the 1.5-goal mark in 100% of their matches so far, while both have regularly conceded, keeping no clean sheets. In their last five appearances, Stargard scored as many as 2.8 goals per match and conceded 2.4, while both teams recorded goals for each side in 100% of their matches throughout the season. The hosts also create more chances, with an average xG of 1.93 and 7 shots on target per match, while the projected total of 3.30 goals gives a clear edge to the Over 1.5 goals option.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Bałtyk win at the final whistle (X/1). The home side have been level at half-time in each of their last five matches, scoring and conceding only 0.2 goals per game before the break during this period. Stargard, however, have been much more active from the outset, averaging 1.8 goals scored before half-time in their recent matches, which is why a scenario with neither side holding a clear advantage after 45 minutes remains the most logical. After the interval, Bałtyk have averaged 1.2 goals per game across their last five outings, while their opponents concede an average of 2.4 goals over the course of entire matches. The hosts also possess superior chance-creation quality, with an average xG of 1.93 compared with 1.37, and record an average of 7 shots on target versus their opponents’ 3.5, supporting the expectation that they will settle the match in the second half.