Bari 1908 vs Modena: match statistics

Modena is the clear favorite: they sit 6th in the table while Bari are 17th, with 14 wins versus 7 for the hosts, and away they win 43% of matches compared to Bari’s 31% wins at home. Away, Modena averages 17.43 shots with 4.86 on target and records xG 1.83, while Bari at home register 11.69 shots with 3.56 on target and xG 1.27, giving the visitors an advantage in both quality and quantity of chances. Defensively the difference is significant: Modena concedes 0.79 goals away and keeps 43% clean sheets, while Bari at home concedes 1.31 goals and has 19% clean sheets; over the season Bari has conceded 50 goals versus 25 conceded by Modena. In the last 5 matches both teams have scored 7 goals each, but Bari has conceded 11 goals compared to Modena’s 5; Bari’s form in that period is 2 wins and 3 losses, and Modena’s is 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses. Considering the superiority in ranking, shots, xG and defense, I tip a victory for the visitors and assign them about 60% chances, 20% for a draw and 20% for a home win.

I back BTTS - Yes because both teams create a high volume of chances: xG 1.61 for Bari and 1.83 for Modena totals 3.44 xG, well above the league average of 2.56. In the last 5 matches both sides had BTTS in 60% of games; Bari concedes on average 2.2 goals per game in that period while Modena concedes 1.0, which increases the likelihood the home side will concede. Seasonally Bari has BTTS in 53% of matches and 65% over 2.5 goals (of which 47% are also BTTS), whereas Modena has 36% BTTS and only 29% over 2.5, giving mixed signals, but Modena holds the edge in chance creation. Modena have scored 42 and conceded 25 this season, Bari have scored 30 and conceded 50, so despite the visitors’ stronger defense the higher combined xG and recent form favor a both-teams-to-score scenario.

xG and shot-analysis indicate a goals-on match: Bari has xG 1.61 and averages 14.24 shots per home game, Modena has xG 1.83 and 17.43 shots away, while their opponents generate on average 0.99 and 1.23 xG against them. Using the mean of attack and defense (1.61+1.23)/2 = 1.42 for Bari and (1.83+0.99)/2 = 1.41 for Modena, expected goals total 2.83. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.83 yields ~77% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~54% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and ~32% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Additionally, this season 82% of Bari’s matches finished over 1.5 goals and Modena 71%, while Bari at home has 65% of matches over 2.5 goals versus 29% for Modena — this partially counterbalances the over 2.5 signal but clearly supports Over 1.5. Based on this, the best line to play is Over 1.5 (side: Over), as the strongest signal from the analyzed data.

I select the scenario Draw at Half-Time and Home Win at Full-Time (X/1). Bari scores only 0.47 goals on average in the first half and has scored 13 first-half goals this season, but averages 1.53 goals in the second half and has scored after the break in each of the last 5 matches (5 of 5). Modena generates a higher xG of 1.83 versus Bari’s 1.61, but has a lower shot conversion rate of 7% versus the home side’s 10%, suggesting less efficient finishing. Bari led at the break in 7 matches (41%) and has 1.65 points gained per half versus Modena’s 1.36, while home wins in the second half occur in 47% of cases, so the strongest signal is a draw at the break with the match decided in Bari’s favor after 90 minutes.