Barycz Sułów vs Stal Brzeg: match statistics

Barycz Sułów are favorites: they have won 67% of their home matches and have not lost any, while Stal Brzeg have been beaten in every away game. The hosts average 2.33 goals scored and 1 conceded at home, whereas the visitors average 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded on the road. Although Stal create chances worth an average of 1.91 xG away from home, compared with Barycz’s 1.75 xG at home, they convert only 8% of their shots, against the hosts’ 14%. In their last five matches, Barycz have scored 7 goals and conceded 7, while Stal have scored 6, conceded 10 and lost 4 games. Stal’s run of four consecutive away defeats, coupled with their failure to score in half of their away matches, points to a home win.

Barycz average 1.86 goals per match, while Stal concede 2.25 and have yet to keep a clean sheet, making a home goal highly likely. An away goal is less certain: Stal have failed to score in 50% of their matches, although their average xG of 1.91 points to untapped attacking potential. Barycz have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their matches and have conceded an average of 1.4 goals over their last 5, so a Stal goal cannot be ruled out. The teams’ BTTS rates are 57% and 50%, giving a slight edge to BTTS - Yes, but Stal’s high rate of matches without scoring limits confidence in this pick.

Barycz Sułów score an average of 1.86 goals per match, while Stal Brzeg concede 2.25, giving the hosts a solid platform to score several goals. The visitors average 16.5 shots and record an xG of 1.91, but score only 1.25 goals per match, so I assess their scoring contribution more cautiously. Barycz’s last five matches have averaged 2.8 goals, compared with 3.2 in Stal’s; at the same time, the 2.5-goal line was surpassed in 60% and 40% of those matches, respectively. A forecast of 2.85 goals in total points most strongly to Over 1.5 goals, while higher lines are less well supported by recent results.

The most likely outcome is for Barycz Sułów to lead at the break and win after 90 minutes. Stal Brzeg were trailing at half-time in 3 of the 4 matches considered, conceding an average of 1.5 goals in the first half, while Barycz scored an average of 0.86 goals during that period. The full-time record also supports them holding on to their lead: the hosts score an average of 1.86 goals, while the visitors concede 2.25 and have lost all 4 matches included in the season statistics. After half-time, Barycz concede an average of just 0.29 goals, limiting Stal's chances of a turnaround. The pick is not without risk, however: the hosts led at the break in only 2 of 7 matches, and Stal's average xG is 1.91, so a draw at half-time followed by a Barycz win remains a significant alternative.