Barycz Sułów vs Warta Gorzów: match statistics

Barycz Sułów have a clearly superior home record: they have won both matches, averaging 2 goals scored and conceding none. Warta Gorzów lost their only away match so far, conceding 5 goals while scoring just 1, and their average away xG conceded stands at a high 2.54. The hosts generate an average xG of 1.36 and maintain 56% possession, while the visitors, despite registering 9 shots on target away from home, convert just 8% of their attempts. Recent form also favors Barycz, who have collected 10 points from their last five matches compared with Warta’s 7. Home advantage and the hosts’ considerably more reliable defense point to a Barycz victory.

The “Yes” pick is supported by the fact that, in the matches played so far this season, both teams have recorded BTTS at 100%, and neither has kept a clean sheet. Barycz Sułów score an average of 2.0 goals per match, while Warta Gorzów concede as many as 5.0, which significantly increases the hosts’ chances of scoring. The visitors score an average of 1.0 goal, but their attacking potential is confirmed by an xG of 1.84 and an average of 9 shots on target, while Barycz concede an average of 1.0 goal. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of games, with average goals scored of 1.8 and 1.2 respectively. Warta’s defense, which has conceded an average of 1.6 goals across its last five matches, should favor an open game, although the visitors’ lower 8% conversion rate remains a risk for BTTS.

Barycz Sułów score an average of 2.0 goals at home, while Warta Gorzów concede as many as 5.0 goals per away match, clearly favoring a high-scoring return for the hosts. Barycz’s attacking potential is supported by an average xG of 1.66, whereas Warta’s defense allows opponents an average xG of 2.54. In their last five matches, both teams recorded games with over 2.5 goals in 60% of cases, while their combined average of goals scored and conceded stands at 3.0 and 2.8 per match, respectively. Both teams have scored and conceded in 100% of their matches so far this season, making a scenario with no more than one goal highly unlikely. The strongest selection is Over 1.5, as the projected total of 3.30 goals gives this line a clearer edge than the more demanding Over options.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Barycz Sułów win, as the hosts were level at the break in 67% of their last five matches, while Warta Gorzów recorded the same outcome in 60%. During this period, Barycz conceded no goals before half-time and scored an average of just 0.33 goals in the first half, which points to a cautious opening. After the break, the hosts are clearly more stable: they average 1.0 goal scored and 0.33 conceded, while Warta concedes an average of 1.2 goals. Barycz’s advantage over the entire season is also reflected in the results, having won 100% of their matches and scored an average of 2.0 goals, whereas Warta lost 100% of its games and conceded as many as 5.0 goals per match. The visitors do have a high average xG of 1.84 and 9 shots on target, but their defense allows opponents an xG of 2.54. Therefore, after an evenly balanced start, the match is more likely to swing in the hosts’ favor.