Barycz Sułów vs Zagłębie Sosnowiec: match statistics

Barycz Sułów have significantly stronger home numbers: they win 67% of their matches, score an average of 2.67 goals, and concede just 0.67 goals per game. The hosts also create more chances, averaging 13 shots with 56% possession, while their xG against is only 0.87. Zagłębie Sosnowiec score an average of 1.25 goals away from home, have failed to score in 50% of such matches, and have lost half of their away fixtures. Particularly significant is the visitors’ defensive weakness in terms of the quality of chances conceded, with opponents’ average xG reaching 2.21 compared with Barycz’s 1.36 xG in home attack. Both teams have won 3 of their last 5 matches, but the hosts’ advantage at home and more stable defense point to a Barycz Sułów victory.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Zagłębie Sosnowiec saw both teams score in only 25% of their matches this season, compared with the league average of 52%. The visitors kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, but also failed to score in as many as 50%, which clearly increases the risk of one side remaining goalless. Barycz Sułów are highly effective at home, averaging 2.5 goals with an xG of 2.07, while Zagłębie’s defense allows an average xG of 2.21, so the hosts should have the offensive edge. The key counterweight is Barycz’s defense, which concedes just 0.5 goals per match and allows opponents only 0.74 xG, while Zagłębie average 5 shots on target. The last five matches for both teams produced BTTS in 40% of cases, so the most likely scenario remains a home win with one of the teams failing to score.

Barycz Sułów has a clear offensive advantage: at home, they average 2.5 goals scored and 2.07 xG, while Zagłębie Sosnowiec concedes an average of 1.25 goals away from home, along with as much as 2.21 xG. The hosts also average 16 shots, including 9 on target, compared with 9 attempts and 5 shots on target for the visitors, pointing to a high volume of chances for Barycz. In their last five matches, the two teams averaged a combined 3.8 goals per game, while Barycz matches went Over 2.5 goals in 80% of cases. At the same time, the hosts’ solid defense, conceding just 0.5 goals per home match, limits the projection for the visitors to 0.90 goals. The strongest signal is Over 1.5, as Barycz cleared this line in 100% of their matches this season, while the projected total of 2.90 goals gives this option a clear edge.

Barycz Sułów have a clear advantage in the seasonal data: they have won 100% of their matches, averaging 2.50 goals scored and just 0.50 conceded, while Zagłębie Sosnowiec have lost 50% of their games and concede an average of 1.25 goals. The difference in quality is further confirmed by the hosts’ xG of 2.07 compared with the visitors’ 1.34, as well as Barycz averaging 9 shots on target against 5 for their opponents. The hosts led at the break in 50% of their matches, whereas the visitors were level at half-time in as many as 75%, making both an early Barycz lead and an opening draw realistic possibilities. After the interval, Barycz score an average of 1.50 goals and concede none, while Zagłębie concede an average of 1.00 goal, strongly supporting the hosts’ ability to maintain their lead until the final whistle. The strongest scenario is therefore Barycz leading at half-time and winning the match overall: 1/1.