Basel vs Thun: match statistics

The favorites are the visitors — Thun — who scored 75 goals this season versus Basel’s 51 and average 2.06 goals per away match with a 12% shot conversion, while Basel at home averages 1.47 goals and 9% conversion. Defensively the teams are similar: Basel at home concedes 1.00 goal on average with xG against 1.30, and Thun away concedes 1.06 with xG against 1.50, suggesting slightly more high-quality chances are created against Thun. In the last 5 matches both teams scored 9 goals, however Thun conceded only 6 compared to Basel’s 9 and as a team has a higher away win rate (75% vs hosts’ 41% home win rate). Additionally Thun rarely fails to score — share of matches without a goal is 6% versus Basel’s 24% at home — which increases the likelihood the visitors will find the net. Despite Basel’s greater possession (55% vs 47%) and a slightly higher average of shots on target per match (5.82 vs 5.5), the advantage in goals, conversion and away results leads me to back a Thun win.

Both teams have high BTTS rates this season: Basel 72% and Thun 69%, versus a league average of 67%, providing a clear baseline signal that both sides are likely to score. Offensively Basel averages 2.33 goals per game and concedes 1.17, while Thun scores 2.06 and concedes 1.06; additionally Thun has 75 goals scored and 38 conceded compared to Basel’s 51 scored and 47 conceded, so both teams regularly find the net. xG and shot data support this picture: xG for Basel is 1.97 with xG against 1.66, for Thun xG 1.88 with xG against 1.5, and shots on target of 6.39 and 5.5, indicating realistic scoring opportunities for both sides. Low clean sheet rates (11% Basel, 25% Thun), a high share of matches over 2.5 goals (72% and 81%), and the combination of over 2.5 with BTTS in 67% and 69% of matches further reinforce the both-teams-to-score scenario. In the last 5 matches both teams scored 9 goals each (avg 1.8), and Basel conceded 9 goals versus Thun’s 6 conceded, therefore I project BTTS - Yes as more probable (78% vs 22%).

Basel scores an average of 2.33 goals per match, Thun 2.06, with xG of 1.97 (Basel) and 1.88 (Thun); when adjusted for the opponent’s defense I expect about 1.74 goals for Basel and 1.77 for Thun, totaling 3.51 expected goals. Seasonally Basel’s matches have finished over 1.5 goals in 83% of cases and Thun in 81%, which gives the strongest signal for Over 1.5. Additionally the percentage of matches over 2.5 is 72% for Basel and 81% for Thun, and matches with both teams scoring occur in 72% and 69% of cases, confirming goals are likely on both ends. Supporting this assessment are average shots on target of 6.39 (Basel) and 5.5 (Thun), low clean sheet rates of 11% and 25%, and a league average of 3.25 goals, therefore I recommend an over at the 1.5 line.

Basel led at the break in 9 of their home matches so far (50%), while Thun led at the break in 7 away matches (44%), giving a slight home advantage at Half-Time. Basel’s average goals by Half-Time are 0.94 with 0.61 conceded, and Thun’s are 0.88 scored and 0.50 conceded, so the expected Half-Time score hovers around 1–1 with a minimal lean towards Basel. Basel average 2.33 goals per match with an xG of 1.97 versus Thun’s 2.06 goals and xG 1.88, and the home side averages 6.39 shots on target compared to the visitors’ 5.5; these offensive metrics support maintaining a lead. Additionally, at least one goal was scored in the second half in 89% of Basel’s matches and 88% of Thun’s, while both teams scored in 72% (Basel) and 69% (Thun) of fixtures overall, so I forecast goals from both sides but not necessarily a turnaround. Considering Basel’s 50% chance to lead at Half-Time and a 67% home win conversion, the strongest signal is Basel leading at the break and winning in regulation time (1/1).