Bayer Leverkusen vs Augsburg: match statistics

Bayer Leverkusen holds a clear offensive edge: at home they average 2.29 goals per match and have 59 goals this season, while Augsburg averages 1.07 goals away and 36 goals this season. Leverkusen generates more high-quality chances — home xG is 1.87 versus opponents’ 1.41 xG; hosts average 6.0 shots on target and 16.57 total shots per match versus Augsburg’s 4.14 on target and 13.43 total, with a conversion rate of 14% vs 8%. Defensively Augsburg is vulnerable away: they concede 1.93 goals per away match, whereas Leverkusen concede only 1.07 at home and have 43% clean sheets versus 0% for the visitors; hosts also have 0% matches without conceding at home (0% FTS) compared to 36% for Augsburg. Recent form over the last five matches confirms the home advantage — Leverkusen: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss (1.6 points per match); Augsburg: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses (0.4 points per match), conceding 12 goals in those five games. Considering superior possession (61% vs 44%), higher chance creation (xG 1.87 vs 1.41) and clearly better offensive efficiency and defensive metrics for the hosts, I forecast a Leverkusen victory.

Data analysis points to BTTS - Yes. Key signals: Augsburg has seasonal BTTS 64% and 80% in the last 5 matches, while Leverkusen has 53% seasonally and 60% in the last 5. Both teams regularly concede: Leverkusen concedes 1.73 goals on average in the season and 1.8 in the last 5, Augsburg 1.93 seasonally and 2.4 in the last 5, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Offensively both teams generate similar xG — Leverkusen xG 1.47 vs Augsburg 1.41 — with xG against 1.51 and 1.59 respectively; Leverkusen scored 2.2 goals in the last 5, Augsburg 1.2, and shots on target 4.87 vs 4.14 confirm chance creation. Additionally the league BTTS rate is 59%, and Augsburg’s 0% clean sheets this season versus Leverkusen’s 33% further favors the Both Teams To Score option. Based on this I assess BTTS probability at approximately 72% (yes) vs 28% (no) and select Yes as the strongest signal.

I estimated expected goals as the average of each team’s attacking xG and the opponent’s xG against: Leverkusen 1.53 (xG attack 1.47 and xG against guests 1.59), Augsburg 1.46 (xG attack 1.41 and xG against hosts 1.51), total ≈2.99 xG. With a sum of ≈2.99 the Poisson distribution gives about an 80% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), which correlates with seasonal Over 1.5 rates: 73% for Leverkusen and 93% for Augsburg. For the 2.5 line the probability of ≥3 goals is about 57%, and seasonal Over 2.5 is 53% for hosts and 64% for guests with a league average of 62%, so Over 2.5 has the edge. Over 3.5 is less likely (≈35%), while seasonal Over 3.5 is 47%/29% (hosts/guests), so Under 3.5 is safer; additionally, in the last 5 matches Leverkusen averaged 2.2 goals scored (11 in 5) and 1.8 conceded, and Augsburg averaged 1.2 scored and 2.4 conceded, which supports choosing Over 2.5 as the optimal line.

The most likely scenario is a half-time draw followed by a Bayer Leverkusen win after 90 minutes (X/1). Seasonally, the home side were level at the break in 47% of matches, with an average goals per season of 1.4 for Leverkusen versus 1.07 for Augsburg. After the break Leverkusen average 0.93 goals and accrue 1.6 points in second halves, while Augsburg average 0.5 goals and 0.57 points after the interval, which gives Bayer the advantage in the closing stages. The hosts win 40% of matches across the season compared to 21% for the visitors, and in the last five fixtures Leverkusen led at half-time in 3 of 5 (60%) while Augsburg have no wins in their last five (0%). Given the high frequency of HT draws (47%) and Leverkusen’s superior post-break efficiency (0.93 vs 0.5 goals, 1.6 vs 0.57 points), the X/1 outcome stands out as the strongest signal from the available data.