Be'sat Kermanshah vs Mes Soongoun: match statistics

Be'sat Kermanshah holds a clear statistical advantage this season: 23 goals scored versus Mes Soongoun's 10. At home they average 1.23 goals per game, have a +8 home goal difference and in the last 5 matches have scored 6 goals with a record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss (1.6 points per game). Defensively the hosts are stronger — conceding only 0.62 goals per home match and keeping a clean sheet in 46% of home fixtures. Mes Soongoun have significant offensive issues on the road: 0.15 goals per away game, 85% of away matches without scoring and only an 8% away win rate, despite the visitors’ overall last-5 record being 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss with 4 goals scored in that span (2 points per game). Additionally, the visitors’ average away xG is 0.92 against xG against of 1.49, indicating Mes Soongoun create fewer high-quality chances than they concede; the hosts’ xG is not included in the provided data. Considering the goal-scoring gap (23 vs 10), superior home defense (0.62 vs 1.62 conceded) and higher clean sheet rate (46% vs 31%), I expect a home victory.

I select the 'No' scenario because seasonal BTTS indicators are very low: Be'sat Kermanshah has BTTS 14% and Mes Soongoun 8%, and even in the last 5 matches both teams have BTTS at 20%. Shooting stats show the hosts create more chances (avg 13.83 shots and 6.5 shots on target) but score only 0.57 goals per game with a 4% conversion, while the visitors have 7.0 shots, 2.2 on target and just 0.15 goals per game with a 3% conversion. Clean sheets are frequent — Be'sat has 50% of matches without conceding, and the league clean sheet rate is 94%; in the last 5 games Be'sat and Mes conceded 2 goals each (0.4 per game), suggesting a low-goals environment. Additionally xG shows a discrepancy: Be'sat has xG 1.92 vs 0.57 actual goals, and Mes xG 0.92 vs 0.15 goals, indicating that even with creative advantage the hosts often fail to convert chances and the visitors rarely score; therefore I assign 20% to BTTS 'Yes' and 80% to BTTS 'No'.

Averaging the home attack xG (1.92) and the away defensive xG (1.49) yields an expected goals value for Be'sat Kermanshah of 1.71, while the analogous combination of away attack xG (0.92) and home defense xG (0.98) gives 0.95, for a total of 2.66 goals. The home side generates substantially more chances: on average 13.83 shots and 6.5 on target with a conversion rate of 4%, whereas Mes Soongoun records 7.0 shots, 2.2 on target and a 3% conversion, supporting the asymmetry 1.71 vs 0.95. Converting the total expected goals of 2.66 into a Poisson distribution produces probabilities of over 1.5 ≈ 74%, over 2.5 ≈ 49% and over 3.5 ≈ 27% (complementary unders 26%/51%/73%). Conversely, seasonal indicators show a low frequency of high-scoring games: seasonOver25 for the home team 14% and for the away team 31%, and the share of matches with both teams to score is only 14% and 8%, which weakens the over 2.5 signal. Overall, the strongest and safest signal from the data is over 1.5.

I predict a Half-Time draw and a Full-Time home win (X/1). A draw at the break appears most likely, as the home side drew 54% of matches and kept a clean sheet at half-time in 77% of games, while leading at the break in only 23% of fixtures. After the interval the statistics favor the home team: home xG is 1.92 versus 0.92 for the visitors, an average of 6.5 shots on target to 2.2, and the home side scored 4 goals in minutes 46–60 while the visitors scored 0, which indicates a second-half advantage. Additionally, the home team won 43% of matches versus 8% for the away side and seasonally score on average 0.57 goals versus 0.15 for the visitors while conceding 0.64 goals compared with 1.62 conceded by Mes Soongoun, therefore the HT/FT scenario X/1 is the most strongly supported by the data.