Beitar Jerusalem vs Hapoel Tel Aviv: match statistics

Beitar Jerusalem are favorites: across the season they have 22 wins and 77 goals scored, while Hapoel Tel Aviv have 18 wins and 54 goals; in the table hosts are 2nd, visitors 4th. At home Beitar averages 1.88 goals per game, registers 5.65 shots on target and has average xG 1.84, whereas Hapoel on the road averages 1.24 goals, 4.29 shots on target and xG 1.51, which gives a qualitative attacking advantage to the hosts. Defensively the hosts also perform better: Beitar concedes 0.94 goals at home and has 35% clean sheets, while Hapoel concedes 1.41 goals away and has only 29% clean sheets; in the last five matches Hapoel conceded 8 goals versus 5 conceded by Beitar. Beitar form in the last 5 is 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss (1.6 points per game, 4 goals scored), while Hapoel have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses (0.8 points per game, 3 goals), which further favors the hosts. Considering higher efficiency (77 vs 54 goals), better shots on target stats (5.65 vs 4.29) and a possession advantage 58% to 49%, I back a Beitar win, although a draw is not excluded due to a recent drop in the hosts’ effectiveness (only 4 goals in 5 matches).

I back No BTTS primarily due to the home side’s solid defense: Beitar averages 1.83 goals scored and concedes only 0.72 per match, keeping a clean sheet in 50% of this season’s games. Hapoel have offensive issues — 1.24 goals per game on the season and only 3 goals in the last 5 matches (0.6 avg), which substantially lowers the likelihood of the away side scoring. xG shows similar chance-creation potential (Beitar 1.61 xG vs Hapoel 1.51 xG), but Hapoel have a much poorer shot conversion rate (9% vs Beitar’s 14%), so they convert chances into goals less often. Additionally, Beitar’s form in the last 5 is W L D W D versus Hapoel’s L D W L L, and over that period Hapoel conceded 1.6 goals on average vs Beitar’s 1.0 conceded, so I estimate No BTTS at about 70% vs 30% for BTTS.

The model combining both teams' xG yields expected goals of 1.45 for Beitar and 1.38 for Hapoel, totaling 2.83, which roughly translates to a ~77% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) and ~54% for 3+ goals (Over 2.5). Seasonal goal averages are 1.83 for Beitar and 1.24 for Hapoel (sum 3.07), while the league average is 2.95, further supporting a goal-rich scenario; Beitar averages 13.76 shots and 4.53 shots on target with 14% conversion, and Hapoel 13.12 shots and 4.29 on target with 9% conversion. On the other hand Beitar concedes only 0.72 goals per match and has 50% clean sheets, whereas Hapoel concedes 1.41 and has 29% clean sheets, so the under 2.5 risk is not negligible. In the last 5 matches Beitar scored 4 goals (0.8 per match) and conceded 5, and Hapoel scored 3 (0.6) and conceded 8 (1.6), which slightly suppresses the probability of a very high-scoring game (Over 3.5 ≈32%). In summary, the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 given the 2.83 expected goals, seasonal sums of 3.07 and high percentages of matches over 1.5 goals: 78% for Beitar and 65% for Hapoel.

Beitar has a clear home advantage: they won 78% of home matches versus 24% for Hapoel, and the season goals average is 1.83 for the home team and 1.24 for the visitors. At Half-Time, the home side leads in 35% of matches and the score is level in 53%, with an average of 0.59 goals scored and 0.24 conceded; Hapoel leads at the break in only 12% and averages 0.53 goals scored and 0.59 conceded by Half-Time. In the second half the picture favors Beitar — they average 1.35 goals scored after the break and only 0.35 conceded, 94% of their matches see at least one goal after Half-Time and their second-half win rate is 76%. The xG difference (1.61 vs 1.51) and higher shot conversion (14% vs 9%) indicate the hosts convert chances more efficiently, supporting a Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of a draw at the break and a home victory by full-time.