Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: match statistics

Beitar Jerusalem are favorites: in their last 5 matches the hosts scored 14 goals (2.8 per match) and have a record of 4 wins and 1 draw, while Maccabi Tel Aviv scored 9 goals (1.8 per match) with 4 wins and 1 loss. The hosts conceded 4 goals in their last five games and concede 0.87 goals per home match on average, whereas the visitors conceded 6 goals in their last 5 and concede 0.93 on the road. Maccabi, however, have a better shot conversion away (13% vs 11%) and a higher average goals away (2.21 vs 1.80), and average xG are close: 1.98 for the visitors versus 1.92 for the hosts. Over the season Beitar have more wins (19 vs 17), fewer losses (3 vs 5) and more goals scored overall (69 vs 60), which together with recent form favors a home victory, although I expect a tight match.

Both teams have season BTTS rates of 67% (Beitar) and 57% (Maccabi); the average is 62%, above the league level of 56%. Season goal averages are 1.93 for Beitar and 2.21 for Maccabi (total 4.14) versus the league average 2.98, which increases the likelihood of both teams scoring in this match. xG confirms similar attacking potential: 1.96 xG for the home side versus 1.98 xG for the visitors, and xGA of 1.24 and 1.22 suggest both sides create and concede chances. Clean sheets occur in only 33% and 36% of matches, although in the last 5 games Beitar has a lower BTTS (40%) and concedes on average 0.8 goals, which slightly reduces confidence; nevertheless, based on season metrics and the high combined xG I tip BTTS - Yes at 65% probability (35% No).

Both teams possess clear offensive potential: Beitar scores an average of 1.93 goals per match, Maccabi 2.21, with season xG of 1.96 and 1.98 respectively. After accounting for opponents’ defensive xG (xG conceded 1.24 for Beitar and 1.22 for Maccabi) we arrive at approximately 1.59 xG for the home side and 1.61 for the visitors, totaling ~3.20 expected goals. Season metrics confirm a high probability of goals: Over 1.5 occurred in 80% of Beitar’s matches and 79% of Maccabi’s, and Over 2.5 in 67% and 64% of cases, hence a strong signal for Over 1.5 (88%) and for Over 2.5 (70%). Over 3.5 is more uncertain — season rates 47% (Beitar) vs 57% (Maccabi), average ~52%, but expected 3.20 goals is below the 3.5 threshold, so Under 3.5 holds a slight edge (54%). Additionally, 67% of Beitar’s matches and 57% of Maccabi’s matches ended with both teams scoring, which reinforces the minimum-two-goals scenario and makes Over 1.5 the best line to play.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). Maccabi averages 1.15 goals by half-time versus Beitar’s 0.67, and the teams’ xG are nearly identical (1.98 vs 1.96), which increases the probability of a draw after 45 minutes. However, after the break Beitar clearly dominates: the hosts score an average of 1.27 goals in the second half, at least one goal is scored after the interval in 93% of their matches, and in their last five fixtures they have won the second half in 80% of cases. Maccabi defends solidly (conceding 0.93 goals per match on the season versus Beitar’s 1.33), but this defensive edge does not offset the home side’s second-half advantage, as Beitar win second halves in 53% of matches. The combination of these figures (similar xG and higher Maccabi goals at half-time vs. Beitar’s strong second-half output) justifies selecting X/1 as the strongest signal.