Benevento vs Audace Cerignola: match statistics

Benevento are favorites as table leaders (1st) with 25 wins and 72 goals scored this season, while Audace Cerignola sit 8th with 14 wins and 48 goals. At home Benevento average 2.17 goals scored and concede only 0.61 per match, whereas Cerignola away record is 1.06 scored and 1.56 conceded — a difference of 1.11 goals in attack and 0.95 in defense per game. The hosts also have superior quality metrics: home xG 2.07 versus visitors’ away xG 1.37, 6.44 shots on target and 16.94 shots overall compared to Cerignola’s 3.94 and 11.33, and a higher conversion rate 13% vs 9%. The last five matches show some dip in form for both sides — Benevento scored only 4 goals with a 1-2-2 record, Cerignola scored 5 with the same 1-2-2 record, while the visitors conceded 9 goals in those five fixtures versus 5 conceded by the hosts. Considering the season-long advantage (72 vs 48 goals), better seasonal defense (26 vs 52 conceded), higher xG and a much lower share of matches without a goal for Benevento (6% FTS vs 33% FTS for Cerignola), I predict a home win.

Seasonal statistics show Benevento with a BTTS rate of 58% versus Audace's 50%, compared to the league average of 51%, indicating a moderate propensity for both sides to score. In the last 5 matches the signal is stronger: Benevento BTTS 60% and Audace 80%, with Audace conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game in those five fixtures versus Benevento 1.0. xG analysis corroborates this from both sides: Benevento xG_for 1.61 vs xG_against Audace 1.43 (difference +0.18), and Audace xG_for 1.37 vs xG_against Benevento 1.22 (difference +0.15), meaning both teams are generating legitimate scoring opportunities. Benevento have scored 72 goals this season and register 4.63 shots on target per game with an 11% conversion rate, while Audace have 48 goals scored and 52 conceded, with 3.94 shots on target per game at a 9% conversion, indicating a home attacking edge and a vulnerable away defense. On this basis I pick BTTS - Yes and estimate probability 70% vs 30%, because the last 5 matches, higher mutual xG and season-long 1.56 goals conceded by Audace (vs 1.26 conceded by Benevento) provide a stronger signal for both teams to score in this match.

xG and attacking metrics point to a goals match: Benevento has an offensive xG of 1.61, while Audace Cerignola concedes xG of 1.43, yielding roughly 1.52 expected goals for the home side; conversely Audace has xG 1.37 against Benevento’s defensive xG 1.22 (~1.30 expected goals for the away side). Seasonal rates show 74% of Benevento’s matches and 78% of Audace’s matches finish over 1.5 goals (average 76%), and more than half of both teams’ games finish over 2.5 (53% and 50%), so combined xG ≈2.8 favors the over. In the last 5 matches Benevento scored 4 goals (0.8 per match) with xG=1.78, while Audace scored 5 (1.0) with xG=1.57, suggesting Benevento may have recently underperformed their created chances. Based on this I project 1.55 goals for Benevento and 1.25 for Audace (total 2.80) and recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal. Over 2.5 is assessed as moderately likely (55%), while Over 3.5 is unlikely given seasonal rates of 42% for Benevento and 28% for Audace.

Our HT/FT simulation identifies 1/1 (Benevento leading at Half-Time and winning at Full-Time) as the strongest signal with a probability of approximately 28%. In the first half Benevento scores on average 0.74 goals versus 0.28 for Audace; the hosts led at the break in 32% of matches compared to 17% for the visitors. A Poisson model estimates a Half-Time draw at around 45% and a home lead at about 40% in this matchup. Over the full 90 minutes Benevento posts higher xG (1.61 vs 1.37), more shots on target (4.63 vs 3.94) and a seasonal goals average of 1.53 vs 1.06, yielding an estimated probability of a home win of roughly 42% versus ~32% for Audace. Conditionally, when Benevento leads at the break (about 40% according to the model), they hold on to win in roughly 69% of those cases (0.278/0.403), although the visitors are more active in the second half (on average 1.67 vs 1.42), giving them a realistic chance of a turnaround. Given Benevento’s xG advantage, greater number of shots on target and superior conversion rate (11% vs 9%), I recommend 1/1 as the strongest HT/FT selection.