Benevento vs Cavese: match statistics

Benevento are clear favorites: at home they average 2.29 goals per match and have an 82% win rate at the stadium, whereas Cavese score only 0.88 goals on the road and win just 12% of away fixtures. The hosts register 17.18 shots per game, including 6.59 on target, with a 13% conversion rate and home xG 2.09; the visitors post 11.47 shots, 3.53 on target, 8% conversion and xG 1.37, which gives Benevento a marked advantage in both quality and quantity of created chances. Defensively Benevento concede only 0.59 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 47% of matches, while Cavese concede 1.47 goals away and have 29% of away games without conceding, further favoring the hosts. In trends Benevento have scored 6 goals in the last 5 matches and average 2.0 points per game in that period, whereas Cavese scored 5 goals and average 1.2 points per game. Considering Benevento failed to score in 0% of home matches while Cavese failed to score in 47% of away games, and the home goal difference of +29 versus the visitors’ away balance of -10, I forecast a home victory.

Benevento concedes an average of 0.83 goals per match and has a 39% clean sheet rate, while Cavese scores only 0.88 goals per season (33 goals), indicating a defensive edge for the home side. In the last 5 matches Benevento conceded on average 0.6 goals with xG against 0.85, and Cavese scored 1.0 goal with xG 1.7 — the visitors create chances but their finishing is below expectation. Seasonal BTTS rate is 33% for Benevento and 47% for Cavese, while the league average is 50%, so the league tendency for BTTS does not offset the home team’s low rate. Benevento scored 71 goals this season versus Cavese’s 33, and the hosts have only 22% of matches over 2.5 goals, which further reduces the likelihood of both teams scoring. Based on this I tip BTTS: No — estimated probability 70% for NO and 30% for YES.

The xG estimate gives 1.43 goals for Benevento and 1.28 for Cavese (average of xG_for_home 1.43 and xG_against_away 1.42, and xG_for_away 1.37 and xG_against_home 1.18), total 2.71. A Poisson model with an expected value of 2.71 indicates probability of at least 2 goals ≈75%, at least 3 goals ≈51% and at least 4 goals ≈29%. Seasonal stats confirm a tendency for goals: Benevento has Over1.5 in 56% and Over2.5 in 22% of matches, Cavese has Over1.5 in 76% and Over2.5 in 47%, and the league averages 2.47 goals per match. In the last 5 fixtures Benevento has xG_for 1.53 and scored 6 goals, Cavese has xG_for 1.70 and scored 5 goals, which increases the offensive impulse. Based on this, the strongest signal is over 1.5 (line 1.5, side over) and I recommend this line as the best entry point.

Analysis shows Benevento draws at half-time in 56% of their home matches, while Cavese leads at the break in only 18% of games; the home side scores on average 0.44 goals by half-time, the visitors 0.24. In the second half Benevento averages 0.56 goals and has accumulated 24 points in second halves, whereas Cavese concedes on average 1.06 goals after the break and has 17 points in those periods. Seasonal defensive figures favor the home team: Cavese concedes on average 1.47 goals per game versus 0.83 conceded by Benevento, and xG is similar (1.43 for the home side versus 1.37 for the visitors), suggesting Benevento should better convert chances against the opponent’s weaker defense. Additionally, in the last five matches Benevento have won 60% of games and led at half-time in 40% of them, while Cavese have only 20% wins and 20% half-time leads in their last five. As a result, the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Benevento win after 90 minutes (X/1 — 30%), with 1/1 and X/X receiving 16% and 20% respectively.