Benevento vs Hellas Verona: match statistics

Hellas Verona come into this match in better form, having collected 8 points from their last five games compared with Benevento’s 4. During this period, the visitors scored 11 goals and conceded 6, while Benevento found the net 8 times but allowed opponents to score as many as 11 goals. Verona’s away defensive record looks more solid: they concede an average of 0.73 xG and 1 goal per match, compared with Benevento’s 1.13 xG and 1.5 goals conceded at home. The hosts create plenty of chances, averaging 1.87 xG from 20 shots per game, but convert this into just 1 goal, highlighting a finishing problem. Verona have drawn all of their away matches so far, making a draw a realistic outcome; however, their superior defensive quality and more favourable recent trend give the visitors a slight edge.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by the current form of both teams: in their last 5 matches, Benevento recorded this outcome in 80% of games, exactly the same as Hellas Verona. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.6 goals scored but conceded as many as 2.2, while Verona scored 2.2 goals per match and allowed opponents 1.2. Their attacking potential is confirmed by xG figures from their five most recent outings: 1.60 for Benevento and 1.69 for Verona, alongside elevated xG conceded by both sides: 1.34 and 1.08. Benevento also create significantly more chances at home, averaging 20 shots and 8.5 on target compared with Verona’s 14 and 3.0, so they should respond to the visitors’ attacking threat. Verona’s seasonal 100% BTTS rate and the league average of 59% further support the expectation that both teams will score at least one goal.

Benevento have averaged 1.6 goals scored in their last five matches, but have conceded as many as 2.2 per game, resulting in a high average of 3.8 goals per match. Hellas Verona have scored 2.2 goals per game over the same period, while 80% of their last five appearances went Over 2.5 goals. The hosts create plenty of chances, as reflected by their seasonal xG of 2.24 and an average of 8.5 shots on target, while the visitors record an xG of 1.28. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches so far, and in 80% of each side’s last five games, both teams found the net. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.90 goals is comfortably above this line, while the attacking data and Benevento’s recent defensive frailties reduce the risk of a tight match.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Hellas Verona win (X/2), as Benevento were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while the visitors had been behind at half-time only once over the same period. Verona are showing clearly better current form: they average 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, compared with Benevento’s 1.6 scored and 2.2 conceded. After the break, the visitors average 1.4 goals, versus Benevento’s 1.0, and their second-half goal difference stands at +3, compared with the hosts’ neutral record. The early stages could be evenly matched, as Benevento averaged 0.6 goals before half-time in their last five matches, while Verona averaged 0.8; however, the visitors’ superior quality and more stable defense should prove decisive after the interval. Benevento’s seasonal data, including an xG of 2.24 and 8.5 shots on target per match, increases the risk associated with the hosts, but it is based on a very small sample and is weaker than Verona’s current trend.