Benevento vs Südtirol: match statistics

Benevento have home advantage and have scored 13 goals in their last five matches, but they have also conceded as many as 12, which significantly undermines confidence in their defensive solidity. In their only home match so far, the hosts lost 0:1 despite creating chances worth an average of 1.44 xG and registering 16 shots per game. Südtirol remain unbeaten in their last five outings, although four of them ended in draws, with the visitors scoring just 4 goals during that period. However, they are highly disciplined without the ball, having conceded only 3 goals in their last five matches, while also keeping a clean sheet in their only away fixture of the season. The contrast between Benevento’s attacking but leaky approach and Südtirol’s solid, draw-oriented style points to the most likely outcome being a share of the points.

Benevento recorded BTTS in 100% of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.6 goals while also conceding as many as 2.4 goals per game. Südtirol are significantly less effective, averaging 0.8 goals scored and recording BTTS in 40% of their last five appearances, which limits confidence in this pick. Nevertheless, their average xG over this period stands at 1.57, exactly the same as Benevento’s, while the hosts allowed opponents an xG of 1.50. Südtirol’s defense conceded only 3 goals in five matches, but Benevento’s attacking form should be enough for the hosts to find the net. The strongest argument for BTTS is Benevento’s very poor recent defensive record and the good quality of the chances created by Südtirol, which is why the “yes” option holds a slight edge.

Benevento averaged 2.6 goals scored and 2.4 conceded in their last five matches, with all 5 of those games going Over 2.5 goals. Südtirol are significantly more solid defensively, conceding an average of just 0.6 goals over the same period, but their average xG of 1.57 indicates genuine attacking potential. The hosts also generate 1.57 xG per match, while their opponents allow 1.13 xG, supporting the forecast of at least one Benevento goal. The combination of the hosts’ attacking form and vulnerable defense points to an expected total of 2.95 goals, making Over 1.5 goals the strongest selection, with an estimated probability of 79%.

The strongest signal is a draw at half-time that is maintained until the final whistle, as Südtirol drew 80% of their last five matches without losing any of them. The visitors were also level at the break in 80% of those games, scoring just 0.2 goals per match in the first halves. Benevento are more capable of dictating the tempo before half-time, averaging 1.25 goals compared with Südtirol’s 0.2, but they also concede 1.0 goal per game during that period. After the break, the hosts remain defensively unstable, conceding an average of 1.5 goals, while Südtirol allow opponents just 0.2 goals and draw the second half in 60% of cases. Benevento’s attacking edge over their last five matches, with 2.6 goals scored per game, increases the likelihood of the draw at half-time and a home win, but Südtirol’s four draws make the X/X scenario the most probable HT/FT outcome.