Benjamin Aceval vs Sportivo Carapeguá: match statistics

Benjamin Aceval holds a clear defensive and table advantage: they are 3rd versus Sportivo Carapeguá’s 8th. At home they concede only 0.33 goals per match on average and keep 67% clean sheets, while the visitors concede 2.25 goals on the road and have 25% clean sheets. The hosts create more chances — on average 14.33 shots and 4 on target per home match with xG 1.77, whereas Sportivo averages 8 shots and 3 on target with xG 1.07 away. Form also favors Benjamin Aceval: 3 wins in the last 5 matches, 6 goals scored in those games and an average of 2 points per match, while the visitors have 2 wins in their last 5, 5 goals and 1.4 points per match. However, the visitors are much more efficient with fewer attempts — shot conversion 16% versus the hosts’ 2% and on average 1.25 goals away compared to 0.33 goals for the hosts at home, so Sportivo can make better use of chances. Considering the superior xG (1.77 vs 1.07), higher shot volume and the hosts’ significantly better defense, I predict a Benjamin Aceval victory, albeit likely by a narrow margin.

I back BTTS - Yes. Benjamin Aceval posts a season BTTS rate of 67% while Sportivo Carapeguá is at 50%, versus a league average of 47%, so season-long indicators favor both teams scoring. Both teams average 1.33 and 1.25 goals respectively (total 2.58) against a league average of 2.36, and the away side concedes 2.25 goals on average with xG against 1.81, indicating a vulnerable defense. Benjamin averages only 5 shots per game but a high conversion rate of 27% and 10 goals this season; however, BTTS in the last 5 matches is just 40% for both sides, which lowers confidence. Considering the season rates 67%/50%, the weak away defense (2.25 conceded) and combined goals average 2.58, I assess the probability of BTTS at 65% vs 35% and choose 'yes'.

I project Benjamin Aceval to score around 1.30 goals and Sportivo Carapeguá around 0.95 goals; calculation based on xG: (home xG 0.80 + average xG conceded by away 1.81)/2 = 1.305 ≈ 1.30, (away xG 1.07 + xG conceded by home 0.80)/2 = 0.935 ≈ 0.95, total ~2.25 goals. Shot analysis signals differently: hosts average 5 shots with 27% conversion (5×0.27=1.35 goals), visitors 8 shots with 16% conversion (8×0.16=1.28 goals), yielding an alternative estimate ~2.63 and increasing the probability of at least 2 goals. Seasonal percentages confirm an offensive profile: Over 0.5 is 100% for both teams, hosts have Over 1.5 in 67% of matches, visitors 50%, and both teams to score in 67% and 50% of games respectively; this is a strong signal for Over 1.5. Last 5 matches show moderate form: hosts scored 6 goals (1.2 avg), visitors 5 (1.0 avg), and recent xG is 1.44 (hosts) versus 0.88 (away), which limits confidence regarding Over 2.5 and 3.5. Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (≈80% probability), Over 2.5 is marginally possible (~48%), and Over 3.5 unlikely (~15%).

Home side Benjamin Aceval are clear favorites: they have a 67% home win rate (winPercentage_home = 67%) and average 1.33 goals per match with 2.0 points per match, whereas Sportivo Carapeguá have a 25% win rate and concede on average 2.25 goals per match, which favors a home victory. At Half-Time the hosts also dominate — they lead in 67% of matches (leadingAtHTPercentage_home = 67%) and average 0.67 goals by the break (scoredAVGHT_home = 0.67) versus 0.0 for the visitors, so the strongest signal is for the home side to lead at the break. The visitors generate slightly higher xG (xG_for_avg_away = 1.07 vs 0.8 for the hosts) but simultaneously have much higher xG against (xG_against_avg_away = 1.81 vs 0.8 for the hosts) and seasonConcededAVG_away = 2.25, so their offensive chance volume is not compensated by good defensive protection. The hosts also scored in minutes 31–45 (2 times) and 76–90 (2 times) in the available data, which confirms the ability to score before the break and hold the result; given the 67% leads at Half-Time and 67% wins, the strongest signal is 1/1. Therefore I select 1/1 as the best pick; alternatives such as draw at Half-Time and home win (X/1 = 15%) or draw/draw (X/X = 12%) are less likely according to the above figures.