Beroe vs Hebar 1918: match statistics

Both teams scored 4 goals each in the last 5 matches (0.8 goals per match on average) and conceded 7 goals each (1.4 goals per match on average), indicating low offensive efficiency and defensive issues. Beroe has a slightly better record over this period: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses (form dwdll) and an average of 1.0 point per match, while Hebar has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses (llwdl) with 0.8 points per match. Parity in goals scored (4–4) and conceded (7–7) suggests an evenly matched, low-scoring game, so a draw is the most likely outcome, e.g. 1-1. A marginal home advantage stems from the higher points-per-match ratio (1.0 vs 0.8) and a greater number of draws, whereas Hebar’s one additional loss (3 vs 2) reduces their chances. Based on this I assess probabilities of 40% for a draw, 35% for a home win and 25% for an away win.

In the last 5 matches Beroe has BTTS at 40% (2/5), while Hebar 1918 has 60% (3/5), providing a mildly supportive signal for both teams scoring. Both sides averaged 0.8 goals scored (4 in 5 matches) and conceded 1.4 goals on average (7 conceded in 5 matches), meaning these teams’ matches often feature goals at both ends. xG over the last 5 games is 1.36 for Beroe and 1.53 for Hebar with xG against of 1.55 and 1.51 respectively, showing both teams create around 1.4–1.5 xG but also allow opponents similar chance quality. However, most season-long data is incomplete (many values = 0, shot conversion rate = -1), which lowers forecast confidence. Based on this I recommend BTTS - Yes with a 60% probability versus 40% for No, because Hebar’s higher BTTS (60%), similar attacking xG (1.36 vs 1.53) and an average of 1.4 goals conceded favor a scenario where both teams find the net.

In the last 5 matches, Beroe and Hebar scored on average 0.8 and 0.8 goals respectively, totaling 1.6 goals per game, with average goals conceded of 1.4 for each side. xG over the same period was 1.36 for Beroe and 1.53 for Hebar (combined xG = 2.89), indicating chances created exceeded finishing. Averaging actual goals (0.8/0.8) with xG yields expected values of approximately 1.08 for the home team and 1.17 for the away team, a total of 2.25 goals. A Poisson model on a mean of 2.25 produces probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈66%, Over 2.5 ≈39% and Over 3.5 ≈19%, so the strongest signal is Under 3.5 (≈81%). Additionally, only 40% of matches in the last 5 meetings for both teams finished above 2.5 goals, and BTTS was 40% vs 60%, which reinforces the recommendation to play Under 3.5.

In the last five matches Beroe led at the break in 20% of games, while Hebar were behind at half-time in 60% of their last five matches, which cumulatively suggests roughly a 40% probability that the home side will lead at the break. Half-time draws were recorded in 40% of cases for both teams, so HT distributions are dominated by values around 40% (draw or home leading). Both teams average 0.8 goals scored per match and concede 1.4 goals in the five-match analysis, but in second halves Beroe average 1.4 goals versus 1.0 for Hebar, with Hebar’s second-half goal difference at +1.0 and Hebar winning the second half in 60% of cases. Due to Hebar’s weaker starts to halves and their stronger post-break dynamics I assign 20% to the 1/2 scenario (Beroe leading HT, Hebar winning FT) and 18% to X/2 (draw HT, Hebar winning FT). In summary, the distribution accounts for ~40% chance of Beroe leading at half-time, ~40% for an HT draw and ~20% for Hebar leading HT, with a preference for 1/2 as the strongest signal reflecting Hebar’s second-half advantage.