Bhayangkara vs Persebaya Surabaya: match statistics

Persebaya Surabaya have shown significantly more consistent form: they have won 4, drawn 1 and lost none of their last 5 matches, earning 13 points. Over the same period, Bhayangkara recorded just 2 wins and 3 defeats, which yielded 6 points. The hosts did score 14 goals in their five matches, but they also conceded as many as 11, averaging 2.2 goals per game—evidence of serious defensive problems. The visitors scored a more modest 6 goals, but their defense conceded just 2, an average of 0.4 per match. The difference between Bhayangkara’s goal difference of +3 and Persebaya’s +4 does not fully reflect the visitors’ superior control of matches, as their run of 4 wins and only 2 goals conceded clearly points to a Persebaya victory.

Bhayangkara recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.8 goals while conceding as many as 2.2. Persebaya have a lower BTTS rate of 40%, but their attacking xG across their five most recent appearances stands at a solid 1.45, compared with the 1.43 xG allowed by Bhayangkara. The hosts scored 14 goals during this period, while their defense allowed opponents 11 goals, which clearly increases Persebaya’s chances of scoring. The visitors conceded only 2 goals in five matches, so the risk of a No Goal scenario for Bhayangkara remains significant; however, their high average of 2.8 goals and xG of 1.63 support the expectation that the hosts will score. Overall, the stronger signal is a moderate lean towards BTTS - Yes.

Bhayangkara have scored 14 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 2.8 per game, but have also conceded 11 goals (2.2 per match). Persebaya are in a much stronger run of results, and their defense has conceded just 2 goals in five appearances, which limits expectations for the hosts. On the other hand, both teams’ xG figures remain solid: 1.63 for Bhayangkara and 1.45 for Persebaya, while the hosts have allowed opponents chances worth an average of 1.43 xG. Bhayangkara’s matches went Over 2.5 goals in 100% of their last five fixtures, whereas Persebaya’s games followed this pattern in only 20%, making the 2.5 line more evenly balanced. The strongest signal points to Over 1.5 goals: the combination of the hosts’ attacking form and defensive weaknesses clearly increases the likelihood of at least two goals.

The strongest signal is the draw at half-time followed by a Persebaya win at full-time: the visitors were level at the break in 75% of their last five matches and never went into half-time trailing. Over the same period, Persebaya won 80% of their matches, remained unbeaten, scored an average of 1.2 goals, and conceded just 0.4 per game. Bhayangkara do have a higher average of 1.2 goals before the break, but they were trailing at half-time in 40% of their recent matches and conceded an average of 1.2 goals after the interval. The hosts have lost three of their last five matches, while the visitors have not conceded a single goal after half-time, strengthening the X/2 scenario rather than the prospect of the draw holding until full-time.