Bidco United vs Kariobangi Sharks: match statistics

I predict an away win ('2') because Kariobangi Sharks have a superior goals record and a smaller negative goal differential: 20 goals scored versus 16 for Bidco United and goal difference -3 vs -7. In chance creation the visitors also edge it — Sharks’ away xG is 1.39 vs the home xG of 1.29, and the visitors average 3.43 shots on target and 9.93 attempts per match compared to Bidco’s 2.31 on target and 8 attempts; conversion rate is 7% vs 6%. Defensively Sharks perform better: they concede 0.93 goals on average away, while the hosts concede 1.07 at home, and the hosts fail to score in 57% of home matches vs Sharks’ 50% of away matches without scoring. In the last 5 matches the hosts have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses (0.4 points per match), while the visitors have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses (0.8 points per match), confirming a slight advantage for the Sharks. Based on these numbers I give the visitors a 45% chance, a draw 30% and the hosts 25%, because advantages in xG (1.39 vs 1.29), shots on target (3.43 vs 2.31) and lower average goals conceded (0.93 vs 1.07) favor Kariobangi.

Seasonal BTTS rates are 46% for Bidco and 43% for Kariobangi, with a league average of 44%, indicating a moderate inclination toward both teams scoring. However, in the last 5 matches both teams have BTTS at only 20% and Bidco has averaged 0.2 goals (1 goal in 5 matches) while Kariobangi has averaged 1.0 goal (5 goals total), suggesting Bidco is most often the team not scoring. Additionally, Bidco averages 0.77 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per season, and Kariobangi 0.71 scored and 0.93 conceded, with a league goals average of 2.01 and a very high clean sheet rate of 70%, which increases the likelihood that one side will keep a clean sheet. xG stats show 1.30 xG for Bidco and 1.39 for Kariobangi with xG against of 1.23 and 1.44, and lower conversion rates (10% vs 7%) and low shots on target numbers (2.92 and 3.43) confirm that actual goals are below expected and BTTS is less likely. Taking all this into account I pick 'No' (No Goal) with a confidence of 70% vs 30%, because recent form and the high clean sheet share more strongly support no both teams to score.

The teams’ average xG are 1.30 (Bidco) and 1.39 (Kariobangi), totaling 2.69 xG, while actual average goals scored are only 0.77 and 0.71 (total 1.48). In the last 5 matches Bidco has scored 1 goal overall (0.2 per game) and Kariobangi 5 goals (1.0 per game), so blending xG and actual returns I expect about 2.08 goals (1.03 for the home side, 1.05 for the visitors). Season shares of matches over 2.5 are 31% for Bidco and 29% for Kariobangi (avg. 30%), which strongly supports Under 2.5 (~70%). Over 1.5 occurred in 54% and 50% of their games, so Over 1.5 is moderately likely (~58%), whereas Over 3.5 is unlikely (~8%). Additionally shot conversion is 10.0% for the home team and 7.0% for the away team with an average of 2.92 and 3.43 shots on target respectively, which confirms a moderate number of goals.

Both teams have a very low first-half goals average — home 0.25, away 0.25 — and in the last 5 matches both recorded 0.0 goals before the break; additionally the home side were level at the break in 50% of matches and the away side in 63%, which strongly points to a draw at half-time. For full-time I back a draw (X/X 36%) because the xG of both teams is similar (1.30 versus 1.39) but conversion is poor: the home team scores 0.77 goals on average, the away team 0.71, and their seasonal BTTS rates are only 46% and 43%. The strongest alternative is a Half-Time draw and an away turnaround (X/2 18%), since the away team averages 0.75 second-half goals versus 0.25 for the home team and 38% of the away team’s matches exceed 1.5 goals after the break. Scenarios with a lead at the break are less likely — the home side led at the break in 25% of matches, the away side in 13% — hence an overall weight for 1/* set at ~25% and for 2/* at ~15%. Based on the above figures I pick “X/X” as the primary tip, because the strongest signal is a draw at half-time and at full-time.