Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha: match statistics

Sparta Praha is the clear favorite: they sit 2nd in the table with 19 wins and 60 goals scored, while Bohemians 1905 are 11th with 9 wins and 24 goals. In the last 5 matches Sparta scored 11 goals (2.2 per game) and won 4 of 5, while Bohemians scored 4 goals (0.8 per game) and have 2 wins; the points-per-game in the last 5 is 2.4 for Sparta vs 1.4 for Bohemians. xG figures are similar — Sparta’s away xG is 1.6, Bohemians’ home xG is 1.54, but Sparta have clearly better efficiency: conversion 12% vs 6% and 4.93 shots on target per game vs the hosts’ 4.07. Defensively the visitors have a big advantage: Sparta concede 0.71 goals away on average and have 57% clean sheets, whereas Bohemians concede 1.14 goals at home and have 29% clean sheets; the hosts fail to score in 43% of home matches. Considering the superiority in goals (60 vs 24), form (2.4 vs 1.4 in the last 5), and Sparta’s better efficiency and defense, I forecast an away win: 65% chance for Sparta, 20% for a draw and 15% for a home win.

The forecast leans toward “No” — I assess a 62% chance of no BTTS and 38% for BTTS. Sparta arrives with a very strong defense: they concede on average 0.71 goals away this season and have 57% clean sheets on the road, which significantly reduces the likelihood of Goal/Goal. Bohemians at home create a lot statistically (2.53 goals per game, xG 2.08, 17.6 shots and 6.73 on target) and their seasonal home BTTS is 80%, but the last 5 matches show a drop in form — only 0.8 goals on average and BTTS at 20%. Additionally Sparta has scored on average 2.2 goals in the last 5 matches (11 goals in 5), so it is more likely Sparta will be the scoring side, while Bohemians may struggle to finish, which together favors the outcome that only one team scores (No BTTS).

Calculated expected goals: I took the average of the attack xG and the xG against the opponent, giving 1.62 xG for Bohemians (attack xG 2.08 and xG against Sparta 1.16) and 1.35 xG for Sparta (attack xG 1.60 and xG against Bohemians 1.09), totaling 2.97 expected goals. Seasonal figures confirm a propensity for goals — Bohemians score 2.53 goals at home on average and have 73% of matches Over 2.5, Sparta away have 57% Over 2.5 and 57% clean sheets. In the last 5 matches Sparta scored 11 goals (2.2 avg), Bohemians 4 goals (0.8 avg), which further increases the probability of goals from the visitors. On the other hand, Sparta’s high clean sheet rate (57%) and low >3.5 share for Sparta (14%) limit the chance of Over 3.5 to around 42% in my assessment. Considering total xG ~2.97 and season Over 2.5 rates of 73%/57%, the best signal is Over at the 2.5 line (I rate Over 2.5 at 68%).

Sparta has a clear advantage in first halves – in their last 5 away matches they led at the break in 4 of 5 (80%), and their season rate of clean first halves on the road is 86% with an average of 0.21 goals conceded by half-time. Bohemians, however, are very strong after the break at home: they score an average of 1.6 goals in the second half, win 73% of second halves and have an average of 2.47 points in second halves. The hosts also generate more chances (xG 2.08 versus 1.6 for Sparta) and average 17.6 shots (6.73 on target) compared to Sparta’s 13.29 (4.93 on target), and at home they average 2.53 goals. Given that Sparta is likely to lead at the break (last 5 matches 80%) and Bohemians have a statistical second-half advantage and the capacity for a turnaround, the most probable HT/FT scenario is 2/1.