Bohemians vs Shelbourne: match statistics

I forecast a draw because Bohemians record as many as 57% draws at home, significantly increasing the likelihood of a shared result, despite Shelbourne claiming 67% away wins. The hosts create more chances — at home they average 5.29 shots on target and xG 1.62 with 61% possession — while the visitors average 4.0 shots on target and xG 1.45 away, giving Bohemians an edge in control and quality of situations. Shelbourne are, however, far more efficient in finishing: conversion rate 13% versus 8% for Bohemians and a higher away goals per game 1.67 vs 1.14 for the hosts, which increases the visitors’ chances of scoring. Both teams have been poor in recent points — Bohemians 0.4 points per game in the last 5 and winless in those five, Shelbourne 0.6 points and only 1 win — and both concede heavily (last 5: Bohemians 9 conceded, Shelbourne 13), suggesting an open, high-scoring draw. Considering the frequent home draws (57%) and the visitors’ finishing efficiency, the most likely outcome is a split of points, most probably 1:1 or 2:2.

Both teams have very high seasonal BTTS rates: Bohemians 86% and Shelbourne 83%, and BTTS in the last 5 matches is 100% for both sides. Clean sheets are rare — seasonal clean sheet percentages are 14% for Bohemians and 17% for Shelbourne — reducing the likelihood of a No Goal from either side. Both teams create and concede many chances: Bohemians average xG is 1.53 (last 5: 1.92) versus Shelbourne’s average xG against 1.33, while Shelbourne has xG 1.45 (last 5: 1.45) with average xG against Bohemians 1.5, producing a balance that favors goals from both sides. In the last 5 matches Bohemians scored on average 1.0 and conceded 1.8, while Shelbourne scored 1.8 and conceded 2.6 — both sides are therefore offensively productive and defensively vulnerable. On this basis I favor BTTS - Yes with a probability of 88% versus 12% for No Goal.

The model averaging offensive xG and opponents’ defensive xG (Bohemians attack xG 1.53, Shelbourne attack xG 1.45; xG against: Shelbourne 1.33, Bohemians 1.50) yields expected goals of 1.43 for the home side and 1.48 for the away side, totaling 2.91 goals. Seasonal metrics confirm an open game: Bohemians score 1.57 and concede 2.14 goals per match, Shelbourne score 1.67 and concede 1.17; additionally BTTS is 86% for Bohemians and 83% for Shelbourne. Over 1.5 appears the strongest signal — seasonOver15 is 86% and 83%, and in the last 5 matches both teams have BTTS 100%, which raises the likelihood to roughly 88%. Over 2.5 also has solid backing: seasonOver25 is 71% for Bohemians and 67% for Shelbourne, and in the last 5 matches Shelbourne have over 2.5 in 100% and Bohemians in 60%, which together with xG=2.91 suggests ~72% chance of over 2.5 goals. Over 3.5 is less certain (Bohemians seasonOver35 57% vs Shelbourne 17%), therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the primary pick while considering Over 2.5 as a secondary option.

Shelbourne are clear favorites: they have a 67% win rate this season and average 2.17 points per match, while Bohemians have a 0% home win rate and only 0.43 points per home match. At half-time Shelbourne led in 50% of their matches, Bohemians only in 14%, so the HT projection comes out approximately 39% for the away side leading at the break, 24% for the home side, and 37% for a draw (the average of their indicators). In the second half Bohemians concede on average 1.43 goals after the break and have a negative second-half goal difference (-3), whereas Shelbourne score on average 1.33 goals after the break, which increases the chance of the visitors maintaining or regaining the lead. Attacks have similar xG (1.53 for Bohemians versus 1.45 for Shelbourne), but Bohemians concede more goals over the season (2.14 vs 1.17), so I assign the highest probability to the '2/2' Half-Time/Full-Time scenario (31%), with 'X/2' as an alternative (24%).