Bologna vs Cagliari: match statistics

I predict a home win (1): Bologna clearly generates more chances — averaging 15.06 shots and 3.82 on target at home versus Cagliari’s 10.47 and 3.24 on the road, with average xG of 1.58 for Bologna vs 1.11 for the visitors. Defensively the hosts also have the edge: Bologna concedes 1.18 goals per home match, Cagliari concedes 1.71 away and records only 6% clean sheets on the road. However, note that Bologna fail to score in 41% of home games while Cagliari are goalless in 35% of away matches, indicating low finishing can hinder converting possession dominance into goals. Form is mixed: Bologna in the last 5 matches have 1 win and conceded 11 goals (avg 0.6 points per game), while Cagliari have 2 wins and conceded 8 goals in the same run (avg 1.2 points per game). Considering the higher xG (1.58 vs 1.11), greater shot volume and superior home defense, I give Bologna a 55% chance, draw 25% and Cagliari 20%.

Seasonal metrics indicate Bologna has BTTS in 35% of matches while Cagliari in 65% (league average 46%), which already favors a Both Teams To Score scenario. Cagliari concedes an average of 1.71 goals per game and has only 6% clean sheets, while Bologna conceded 11 goals in the last 5 matches (2.2 avg), increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. Offensively both teams are comparable: Bologna scores 1.18 goals with an average xG 1.08, Cagliari 0.94 goals with an average xG 1.11; in the last 5 matches the home side had xG 1.28 and scored 3 goals, the away side had xG 1.12 and scored 5. Considering Cagliari’s low clean sheet rate (6%), Bologna’s high number of goals conceded in the last 5 matches (11) and Cagliari’s seasonal BTTS share of 65%, the BTTS scenario looks stronger, therefore I tip 'BTTS - Yes' (70% vs 30%).

The xG model and defensive matchup produce 1.35 xG for Bologna and 1.25 xG for Cagliari, totaling 2.60 expected goals. Seasonally Bologna finished 65% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Cagliari 88% (average 76.5%), and both teams have 94% of matches with at least 1 goal, which strongly supports Over 1.5 (I rate it 78%). In the last 5 rounds Cagliari scored 5 goals (1.0 per game), while Bologna conceded 11 goals (2.2 per game), further increasing the likelihood of goals in this fixture. The 2.5 line is more balanced — seasonally Over 2.5 is 35% (Bologna) vs 65% (Cagliari), and xG=2.60 only slightly exceeds the 2.5 threshold, so I give a moderate edge to Over 2.5 (55%). For 3.5 the stats are low (24% and 18%, average 21%) and with an expected 2.60 goals I prefer Under 3.5 as the safer option (80%).

A half-time draw appears to be the strongest signal: Bologna was level at the break in 59% of their matches, while Cagliari were level at half-time in 41%, favoring an X at Half-Time. After 90 minutes the advantage lies with the home side — Bologna have won 35% of home matches, whereas Cagliari have won only 18% away, and the seasonal points average of 1.29 versus 0.82 confirms home advantage. From a chance-creation perspective the home xG is 1.08 while Cagliari concede on average 1.62 xG; additionally Bologna’s shot conversion of 12% versus the visitors’ 9% suggests a home goal after the break is likely. Support for overturning the draw comes from second-half form: the hosts average 1.53 points and win 41% of second halves, while the visitors average 1.00 point and win 24% of second halves, which favors an HT draw and Bologna FT victory. Note the risk — in the last 5 matches Bologna trailed at half-time in 80% of cases, so the X/1 prediction should be considered moderate rather than absolute.