Bologna vs Lecce: match statistics

Bologna holds a clear edge in chance creation and form: at home they have scored 40 goals this season (0.93 goals per home match) and have 8 goals in the last 5 matches, while Lecce have 21 goals this season (0.67 on the road) and only 4 in their last 5. Superior chance quality is visible in xG — Bologna averages 1.62 xG at home versus 0.98 xG for Lecce away; the hosts also register 15.6 shots and 3.93 on target per home match vs 9 shots and 2 on target for Lecce away. Defensively the hosts concede 1.2 goals at home on average, while Lecce concede 1.4 on the road, and Lecce’s away loss rate is 67% versus Bologna’s 53% home defeats. Additionally Bologna have better points form: 3 wins in the last 5 and 1.8 points per match, versus 1 win and 0.6 PPG for Lecce, and the non-scoring rate is 40% for Bologna vs 47% for Lecce. Considering the higher volume and quality of chances (xG 1.62 vs 0.98), superior shooting metrics and clearer form advantage, I tip a home victory.

I indicate the 'No' scenario as more likely: 60% for 'No' vs 40% for 'Yes'. The main argument is seasonal BTTS metrics: Bologna have BTTS in 38% of home matches, Lecce only 33% away, both below the league average of 46%. Both teams score infrequently — on average 0.69 (Bologna at home) and 0.67 (Lecce away) goals — despite a combined xG of 2.14 (1.16 + 0.98), which shows chance creation without effective finishing. Conversion rates confirm this: only 6% for Bologna and 7% for Lecce, and in the last 5 matches Bologna averaged 1.6 goals vs 0.8 for Lecce, suggesting more often only one side scores. Additionally, seasonal numbers (Bologna 40 scored/37 conceded, Lecce 21/43) indicate Bologna will be the primary chance creators, so the most likely outcome is that at least one team fails to score — hence the 'No' selection.

xG and defensive analysis yield a combined expected goals total of approximately 2.56: Bologna’s attacking xG is 1.16 and Lecce’s 0.98, while xG against is 1.34 (Bologna) and 1.64 (Lecce), which averaged gives (1.16+1.64)/2 = 1.40 for Bologna and (0.98+1.34)/2 = 1.16 for Lecce, totaling 2.56. In the last 5 matches Bologna scored 8 goals (avg. 1.6) and conceded 9 (avg. 1.8), while Lecce scored 4 (avg. 0.8) and conceded 10 (avg. 2.0), which amplifies the goal expectation. Season metrics show Over 1.5 occurred in 69% of Bologna’s matches and 53% of Lecce’s, whereas Over 2.5 is less conclusive on the season (50% Bologna, 27% Lecce) though in the last 5 matches Over 2.5 appeared in 60% (Bologna) and 80% (Lecce) of games. Consequently the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (recommended), Over 2.5 appears moderately likely (~57%), and Over 3.5 has low probability (~15%).

I back 1/1 as the most likely scenario, assigning it a 34% probability. In their last five matches Bologna have won three times (60%) and averaged 1.6 goals per game versus Lecce’s 0.8, giving the home side an offensive advantage. Over the season Bologna recorded a draw at half-time in 63% of home fixtures, but in the last five they led at the break in 60% of cases (3 of 5), so the HT can be either a draw or with the home side leading—hence the high share for X/1 (28%) and X/X (16%) scenarios. Additionally, the home xG is 1.16 versus 0.98 for Lecce, while Lecce concedes 1.64 xG on average to opponents (compared with 1.34 for Bologna), which together with Bologna’s 2.69 shots on target per game suggests they will maintain the lead after the break, although Bologna concedes many goals between the 61st and 75th minute (11 goals), so some caution is warranted.