Bolton Wanderers vs Stockport County: match statistics

Bolton possess a significant home advantage: 58% home win rate, conceding an average of 1.00 goal per game and a positive goal differential of +23 with an average of 1.96 goals scored and xG 2.02. Although Bolton’s last 5 matches show 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, they scored 8 and conceded 7 in that span. Stockport arrive in better form — 4 wins in their last 5 and an average of 2.4 points in that period, scoring 10 and conceding 4 across those five fixtures — however, on the road they average 1.42 goals and xG 1.36. Statistically Bolton generates markedly more chances at home: 18.92 shots and 5.79 on target per game with xG 2.02, versus Stockport’s 11.67 shots and 4.58 on target away, which indicates a home advantage in chance quality. Stockport have superior finishing efficiency (12% vs Bolton’s 10% conversion), but Bolton’s low home loss rate (8%) and the possession edge (59% vs 54%) lead me to back the home win.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 58% each (Bolton 58%, Stockport 58%), and in the last 5 matches both sides register 60% BTTS, which alone is a strong signal for BTTS - Yes. Bolton scores 1.67 and concedes 1.08 per match, Stockport scores 1.42 and concedes 1.33; additionally xG is 1.65 vs 1.23 for Bolton and 1.36 vs 1.32 for Stockport, meaning both teams generate and concede comparable scoring opportunities. In the last 5 matches Stockport scored 10 goals (2.0 avg) and conceded 4 (0.8), while Bolton scored 8 and conceded 7, indicating an attacking form from the visitors and a tendency for the hosts to concede (1.4 in the last 5). Clean sheets are moderate: Bolton has 33% clean sheets, Stockport 25%, and the league has an overall BTTS rate of 52% and 58% of matches over 2.5 goals, which further supports a both teams to score scenario. Therefore I estimate a 72% probability for BTTS 'yes' and 28% for 'no' and recommend the 'yes' pick as the strongest signal from the data.

Both teams have a high proportion of matches with over 1.5 goals — seasonally Over 1.5 is 79% for Bolton and 79% for Stockport, while the league average goals is 2.62. Based on xG and opponent xG I expect about 1.49 goals for Bolton (xG 1.65 vs xG against Stockport 1.32 => (1.65+1.32)/2=1.49) and 1.30 for Stockport (xG 1.36 vs xG against Bolton 1.23 => (1.36+1.23)/2=1.30), totalling 2.79 goals. A Poisson model with mu=2.79 gives roughly a 77% chance of over 1.5, about 53% for Over 2.5 (P(≥3)≈0.53) and around 31% for Over 3.5, which aligns with the seasonal Over 2.5 ~58% and low Over 3.5 (Bolton 21%, Stockport 25%). In the last 5 matches Stockport averaged 2.0 goals (10 in 5) and Bolton 1.6 (8 in 5), further confirming both teams’ offensive potential. On this basis the strongest and most justified market is Over 1.5 (recommendation: Over 1.5, estimate ~78%).

In the first half a draw predominates: Bolton were level at the break in 38% of their home matches, and Stockport were level at the break in 50% of their away games, giving an average of around a 44% chance of a draw at half-time. After the break Bolton have the advantage — the hosts score on average 0.96 goals after the interval and concede 0.46 (difference +0.50), while Stockport score 0.67 and concede 0.88 (difference −0.21), meaning Bolton have a net +0.71 goal advantage in second halves. Additionally Bolton have a higher home xG of 1.65 versus Stockport’s 1.36 and win the second half in 57% of home matches, whereas Stockport win the second half in only 28% of away matches, which supports the scenario of an HT draw turning into a home win. Considering the seasonal home advantage (58% home wins) and the second-half statistics, the most confident HT/FT selection is draw at Half-Time, Bolton to win Full-Time (X/1).