Boreham Wood vs Altrincham: match statistics

Boreham Wood top the table and remain unbeaten after 10 matches (8 wins and 2 draws), while eighth-placed Altrincham have a record of 6 wins and 4 defeats. The hosts have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 12 goals and conceding 4; the visitors have also won 4 times, but have conceded 8 goals while scoring 10. At home, Boreham Wood average 2.75 goals and create chances worth 2.06 xG, while Altrincham manage just 1 goal and 1.02 xG away from home. The difference in attacking potential is reflected in shots on target: the hosts average 7.25 per home match compared with 2.8 for the visitors on the road. Although Boreham Wood concede an average of 1.5 goals at home, Altrincham let in 1.8 away and have lost 3 of their 5 such matches, all of which points to a home win.

BTTS has landed in 80% of Boreham Wood’s matches and 60% of Altrincham’s, with both teams recording an 80% rate across their last five games. The hosts average 2.0 goals scored, while the visitors concede 1.8, making a Boreham Wood goal highly likely. There is more uncertainty around Altrincham, who average 1.0 goals away from home and have failed to score in 40% of their matches. However, Boreham Wood concede an average of 1.2 goals and have kept a clean sheet in only 20% of their games. The visitors’ recent form also points to a goal: they have averaged 2.0 goals across their last five matches, with an xG of 1.49, while the hosts have conceded an average of 0.8 goals recently. Therefore, the BTTS - Yes scenario has the edge, although the risk of Altrincham failing to score remains significant.

In their last 5 matches, Boreham Wood averaged 2.4 goals scored, while Altrincham conceded 1.6, pointing to strong scoring potential for the home side. The visitors could also get on the scoresheet: over the same period, they averaged 2.0 goals, although the hosts conceded just 0.8. At least 3 goals were scored in 80% of Boreham Wood’s last 5 matches and in all 5 of Altrincham’s, but the teams’ seasonal xG figures of 1.58 and 1.02, respectively, call for caution with higher lines. Over 1.5 goals is therefore the strongest pick: with a projected total of 3.08 goals, just 2 goals are needed, and this line has been cleared in 100% of the hosts’ matches and 60% of the visitors’ matches this season.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Boreham Wood win: the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their 5 home matches and also in 3 of their last 5 matches overall. Their home record supports the win, with 4 victories in 5 matches, while they average 2.0 goals scored compared with Altrincham’s 1.8 goals conceded away from home. A second-half decision is supported by the hosts’ recent form: across their last 5 matches, they averaged 1.8 goals scored in the second half and won that half 4 times. However, the visitors have won 4 of their last 5 matches overall, so Boreham Wood taking the lead at the break remains a realistic alternative. Still, a draw at half-time followed by a Boreham Wood win best reflects the data from both halves.