Borussia Dortmund vs Paderborn: match statistics

Borussia Dortmund head into the match after recording 3 wins in their last 5 games, scoring 13 goals, while Paderborn have won just once and scored 8. At home, Dortmund have won every match so far, averaging 2 goals per game and yet to concede. The hosts create significantly more danger: their average xG stands at 2.21, with 20 shots and 7 shots on target per match, while Paderborn have managed just 0.91 xG away from home and have not registered a single shot on target. The visitors did keep a clean sheet in their only away match, but allowed their opponents 2.14 xG, which represents a clear risk given Dortmund’s attacking quality. Paderborn can draw confidence from the fact that three of their last five matches ended in draws, but the hosts’ superiority in chance creation and finishing efficiency clearly points to a Dortmund victory.

Both teams have delivered BTTS in 3 of their last 5 matches, representing a 60% rate, slightly above the league average of 56%. During this period, Borussia averaged 2.6 goals scored and Paderborn 1.6, while their opponents conceded 1.2 and 1.4 goals per match, respectively. The quality-of-chances data also supports goals at both ends: average xG across the last five appearances stands at 2.12 for Dortmund and 1.69 for Paderborn, while Paderborn allows opponents 1.84 xG. The main risk to the pick is Paderborn’s current record: they have yet to concede a goal and have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches so far. However, their recent attacking output clearly increases the likelihood of scoring. Dortmund have already conceded 2 goals this campaign and allow opponents an average of 1.65 xG, making a goal for both the home and away teams the more likely scenario.

The latest form of both teams strongly points to goals: Dortmund have averaged 2.6 goals scored over their last five matches, while Paderborn have averaged 1.6. During this period, the hosts created chances worth an average of 2.12 xG, while Paderborn’s defense allowed opponents 1.84 xG per match. The visitors also offer an attacking threat, with average xG of 1.69, while Dortmund have conceded an average of 1.2 goals recently. At least three goals were scored in 80% of Dortmund’s last five matches and in 60% of Paderborn’s games, while the league-wide average is a very high 3.94 goals. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 3.45 goals provides a substantial margin for error even if finishing efficiency is lower than usual.

Borussia Dortmund have been in clearly better form across their last five matches, averaging 2.6 goals and winning 60% of their games, while Paderborn have scored 1.6 goals on average and won only 20% of the time. The hosts are particularly dangerous before the break, averaging 1.6 goals compared with the visitors’ 0.67, while Paderborn fail to score in as many as 67% of their first halves. Dortmund led at the break in 40% of their recent matches, whereas Paderborn were ahead at half-time in only 33%, reinforcing the scenario of the hosts taking control from the outset. After the interval, Dortmund concede just 0.2 goals on average and keep a clean sheet in 80% of second halves, so they should be able to protect a lead effectively. The 1/1 outcome is the most likely, although Paderborn’s 60% draw rate over their last five matches also increases the relevance of the draw-at-half-time and Dortmund-win scenario.