Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: match statistics

Borussia Dortmund have won their last five matches, scoring 15 goals, while Werder have recorded three wins and scored 11. Borussia have won every home match so far, averaging 2.5 goals scored and none conceded; Werder are yet to win away and concede an average of 2.5 goals. The hosts also create better chances: their home xG stands at 2.02, compared with Werder’s away xG of 1.31, while they average 7.5 shots on target to Werder’s 4. The visitors could still pose a threat to Borussia’s goal, having scored 11 times in their last five matches. Even so, the contrast in home and away results, as well as in chance quality, clearly points to a home win.

In Borussia Dortmund’s home matches and Werder Bremen’s away matches, both teams have scored in 100% of games, although this figure should be treated with caution due to the limited sample size. Dortmund average 3.0 goals at home, while Werder concede 2.5 on the road, making a home goal highly likely. The visitors’ chances are supported by the fact that Dortmund concede an average of 1.5 goals at home, while Werder’s away xG is 1.31. However, Borussia’s recent defensive form calls for caution: they conceded an average of just 0.8 goals across their last five matches, and both teams scored in 40% of those games, compared with 80% of Werder’s last five. Despite this caveat, the goal records and results to date at home and away suggest that both teams will score (BTTS - Yes / Goal/Goal).

Borussia’s last 5 matches averaged 3.8 goals, and Werder’s matches also averaged 3.8; both teams went over the 2.5-goal line in 80% of those games. Borussia scored 15 goals during this period and averaged 2.16 xG, while Werder conceded 8 goals. The visitors also have attacking potential: they scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches, while Borussia conceded an average of 0.8 goals. The 3.75-goal forecast points to an open game, but Over 1.5 is the strongest pick, as it requires one fewer goal than Over 2.5, and every match played by both teams so far has gone over this line.

The strongest signal is Borussia Dortmund leading at the break and going on to win: in the two away matches considered, Werder were trailing at half-time on both occasions, conceding an average of 1.5 goals before the break and scoring none. Dortmund led at the break in 1 of 2 home matches, and across their last five matches they averaged 1.0 first-half goals scored and 0.2 conceded. The prospect of maintaining or extending their advantage is supported by the hosts’ perfect record of 5 wins in their last 5 matches and an average of 2.5 goals scored after half-time at home. Their average xG is 1.87 compared with Werder’s 1.31, while the hosts average 9 shots on target to the visitors’ 4, further supporting a Dortmund win. A half-time draw remains a notable alternative, as Borussia were level at the break in 2 of their last 5 matches; however, Werder’s slow starts make 1/1 my top-rated HT/FT outcome.