Borussia M'gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund: match statistics

Dortmund is the clear favorite: they sit 2nd with 65 goals scored this season versus 36 for Borussia M'gladbach (11th), a 29-goal advantage. Away, the visitors average 1.87 goals with xG for 1.43, while Gladbach at home score 1.27 goals with xG 1.33; additionally Dortmund has superior shot conversion (16% vs 11%). Defensively the visitors are better as well — the hosts concede 1.6 goals at home with xG against 1.66, whereas Dortmund concedes 1.13 goals away with xG against 1.39. In the last 5 matches Dortmund scored 10 goals and averages 1.8 points per game, while Gladbach scored 5 goals, failed to win in those 5 (0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss) and averages 0.8 points per game. Considering the goal differential (65–36), higher conversion (16% vs 11%), the visitors’ 0% share of games without a goal (vs 40% for the hosts) and superior xG, I project an away win for Dortmund.

Seasonal and league metrics favor BTTS: Borussia Dortmund have BTTS in 67% of matches, while the Bundesliga averages 61% of fixtures finishing with both teams scoring. Borussia M'gladbach record only 38% BTTS on the season and keep a clean sheet in 56% of home games, but at home they score an average 2.31 goals with xG_for 1.74 and 5.25 shots on target, so they still pose a threat. Dortmund average 1.87 goals away with xG_for 1.43 versus Gladbach’s xG_against 1.07; additionally Dortmund have scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches (2.0 per game). In their last 5 fixtures Gladbach have xG_against 1.89 and conceded 6 goals (1.2 per game), and their most recent 5 matches show BTTS at 60%, indicating a higher defensive vulnerability than across the season. Overall Dortmund’s high BTTS rate (67%), Gladbach’s elevated recent xG_against (1.89) and Dortmund’s scoring form (10 goals in 5) shift the probability toward “Yes” to about 63%, with 37% for “No.”

Both teams have a high share of matches above 1.5 goals: the hosts 81% of their home games and the visitors 93% of their away games, so only 19% and 7% finish below 1.5. Based on xG: Gladbach generates xG 1.74, while Dortmund concedes xG against 1.39 — the average of these values yields expected home goals ≈1.57; conversely Dortmund 1.43 vs Gladbach 1.07 → expected away goals ≈1.25, total ≈2.82. A Poisson model with λ=2.82 gives probability of 3+ goals ≈53.5% and 4+ ≈31.2%, which aligns with seasonal Over2.5 rates of 56% (Gladbach) and 60% (Dortmund). Additionally Gladbach averages 14.94 shots (5.25 on target), Dortmund 11.33 (4.07 on target) with conversion rates of 15% and 16%, confirming that chances will be created. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (recommended) given the high seasonal shares and expected 2.82 goals in the match; Over 2.5 has a moderate edge (~55%), while Over 3.5 is less likely (~31%).

The home side has a strong record of leading at the break — they were ahead at half-time in 11 home matches (69%), with an average of 1.13 first-half goals for Gladbach versus 0.80 for Dortmund, which increases the likelihood that the hosts will be in front after 45 minutes. Over the full match Gladbach win 75% of their home games and average 2.38 points per match, while Dortmund have a 53% away win rate and 1.93 pts/match, so the final result also favors the hosts. Additionally, the hosts perform strongly after the break — they average 2.13 points in second halves and win 63% of those situations, whereas the visitors average 1.27 points and only a 20% win rate, which supports Gladbach maintaining or extending their lead. However, it should be noted that Dortmund have 67% of their season matches with both teams scoring and superior recent form in the last five (W W L L W, 1.8 pts vs. the hosts’ 0.8 pts), which raises the risk of an equalizer or a draw at half-time. On this basis the most certain signal is the home side leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1), hence this scenario has been given the highest probability share.