Botafogo vs Palmeiras: match statistics

Palmeiras lead the table and have won 15 of their 25 matches this season, while Botafogo have just 8 victories and sit in 12th place. The home side’s form has clearly declined: they have lost four of their last five matches, scoring 4 goals and conceding as many as 13, whereas the visitors have scored 11 goals and conceded only 5 during the same period. Away from home, Palmeiras win 54% of their matches and lose just 15%, while their defense allows an average of 0.92 goals per game, compared with the 1.55 goals Botafogo concede at home. The hosts do create more chances, with an xG of 1.81 and 16.82 shots per home match, but Palmeiras are more clinical, converting 15% of their shots compared with Botafogo’s 11%. The visitors’ superior current form, more solid defense, and greater efficiency point to a higher probability of an away win.

The season profile favors goals from both sides: Botafogo record BTTS in 67% of matches, while Palmeiras do so in 62%, compared with the league average of 59%. Both teams rarely finish matches without scoring, as each has failed to find the net in only 8% of their games, averaging 1.75 goals for Botafogo and 1.85 for Palmeiras. Palmeiras are in very good offensive form, scoring 2.2 goals per game across their last five matches, while Botafogo have conceded as many as 2.6 goals on average during this period. The hosts have a weaker recent attacking return, averaging just 0.8 goals in their last five outings, but their xG stands at 1.83, while Palmeiras allow opponents 1.32 xG, providing solid grounds for a breakthrough. The biggest risk to BTTS - Yes is the visitors’ strong defensive record, with a clean sheet expected in 38% of matches, but the overall data still points slightly towards both teams scoring. In BTTS - No terms, this means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as at least 2 goals were scored in 67% of Botafogo’s matches and as many as 77% of Palmeiras’ games. Both teams scored in 92% of their matches, while the percentage of games featuring goals from both teams stands at 67% and 62%, respectively, reducing the risk of a tight match. Palmeiras are in clearly better form: they have averaged 2.2 goals scored across their last five matches, while Botafogo have conceded as many as 2.6 goals per game. The hosts create an average of 1.68 xG, compared with Palmeiras’ 1.39 xG, while their latest xG figures are 1.83 and 1.66, supporting a forecast of 2.80 total goals. The 2.5 line is more evenly balanced, as both teams went Over 2.5 in 60% of their last five matches, but Over 1.5 offers a clearly stronger probability edge.

Palmeiras are showing significantly better current form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, winning three games, while Botafogo have managed just 0.8 goals scored, conceded 2.6, and suffered four defeats. The first-half signal is particularly strong: Botafogo were trailing at the break in four of their last five matches, whereas Palmeiras have not been behind at half-time in any of them. The visitors also have a positive first-half goal difference of +3 across their last five appearances, compared with Botafogo’s -7, and concede only 0.2 goals on average before the break. Palmeiras remain effective after half-time, averaging 1.4 goals recently, so the scenario of the visitors leading at the break and securing a full-time victory has the strongest foundation in the HT/FT market. However, Botafogo’s home advantage, where they average 2.25 points per match, limits confidence in the prediction and increases the likelihood of draw-related outcomes.