Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More: match statistics

Cherno More has a clear defensive edge: away they concede an average of 0.71 goals and keep a clean sheet in 47% of matches, while Botev at home concedes 1.35 goals and has only 18% clean sheets. Botev creates more chances at home — on average 14.06 shots and 5.35 on target with xG 1.75 per match — but scores only 1.12 goals (conversion 8%), indicating an underperformance versus xG of about 0.63 goals. Cherno More attempts fewer shots (9.59, 3.65 on target) and has xG 1.27, but a higher conversion rate of 12% and also averages 1.12 goals away, meaning they convert chances more efficiently. In the last 5 matches the visitors have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, averaging 2.0 points per game, while Botev has 2 wins and 3 losses averaging 1.2 points per game. Considering the visitors’ lower average goals conceded (0.71 vs 1.35), higher clean sheet rate (47% vs 18%), and advantages in conversion and form (away wins for visitors 41% vs home wins for hosts 29%), I predict a Cherno More win; suggested probabilities: home 25%, draw 20%, away 55%.

I project BTTS - No. Botev has a season BTTS rate of just 29%, while Cherno More have recorded 0% BTTS in their last 5 matches. Season averages show both teams score 1.12 goals per game (Botev 1.12, Cherno More 1.12) and concede under 1 goal on average (Botev 0.82, Cherno More 0.71), which favors clean sheets. Botev have kept a clean sheet in 59% of matches and Cherno More in 47%, with the league seeing 69% of matches featuring at least one clean sheet — this increases the likelihood that at least one side will fail to score. Although xG favors the home side (1.59 vs 1.27) and Botev register more shots (12.24 vs 9.59), their conversion rate is lower (9% vs 12%), and in the last 5 games the visitors conceded just 0.8 goals compared to the hosts' 1.2, giving Cherno More a defensive edge. Given the home side’s low season BTTS of 29%, the visitors’ 0% BTTS in their last five, high clean sheet rates (59%/47%) and the visitors’ defensive form, I assign 75% to 'no' and 25% to 'yes'.

The combined xG yields expected goals of 1.52 for Botev (attacking xG 1.59 vs opponent defense xG 1.45) and 1.30 for Cherno More (attacking xG 1.27 vs Botev defense xG 1.33), totaling 2.82 expected goals. This exceeds the league average of 2.3 and both teams’ seasonal goals-scored averages of 1.12, increasing the probability of at least 2 goals in the match. Seasonal percentages of matches over 1.5 goals are 65% for the home side and 53% for the visitors, while for over 2.5 they are 29% and 41%; despite a historically moderate over 2.5 rate, xG of 2.82 leads me to assess Over 2.5 goals at around 53%. A competing signal is Botev’s high clean sheet rate (59%), which reduces the risk of a very high-scoring game, but the hosts record 4.65 shots on target versus 3.65 for the visitors and generate more goal-scoring opportunities, so at least 2 goals remains the most likely outcome. On that basis the strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals (≈77%), whereas Over 3.5 goals remains unlikely (≈31%).

I expect a draw at half-time because the home side had a clean sheet at the break in 76% of their home matches and the visitors in 71% of their away games, with an average of 0.53 goals per team by half-time. In the second half the home team holds the edge: their xG is 1.59 versus the visitors' 1.27, average shots 12.24 vs 9.59 and shots on target 4.65 vs 3.65, which increases the chance of a turnaround after the break. In the last 5 matches the hosts averaged 1.8 goals after the break compared to 0.6 for the visitors, and seasonally the home side led at the interval in 47% of home games versus 29% of away leads for the visitors. Therefore the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1, 32%), with a significant probability of a full-time draw (X/X 27%) and the hosts maintaining their lead from half-time (1/1 12%).