Boulogne vs Red Star: match statistics

Red Star sit 4th, while Boulogne are 12th, and in their last five matches the visitors have picked up 8 points compared with the hosts’ meagre 2. Boulogne have failed to win either of their two matches so far and have scored just 3 goals in their last five outings, conceding 8. At home, the hosts create very few chances: their average xG is 0.55, they take 4 shots and register just 1 shot on target per match, and they have yet to score at home. Red Star have won every away match so far, kept a clean sheet in each one and generate significantly higher xG: 1.42, while allowing opponents 1.05. The visitors’ edge in chance quality, shooting activity (14 attempts per match) and current form points to an away win, although the low goal tally in both teams’ matches leaves a significant chance of a draw.

The BTTS pick does not have a clear edge, as the league-wide rate of matches in which both teams score is only 39%, while clean sheets occur in as many as 83% of games. Boulogne have scored just 3 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.6 per game, despite Red Star conceding an average of 1.0 goal during that period. The hosts have nevertheless created chances worth 1.15 xG, while the visitors’ defense has allowed an average of 1.11 xG, giving Boulogne a realistic but far from certain chance of scoring. Red Star are in better offensive form, averaging 1.4 goals and 1.67 xG across their last five appearances, while Boulogne have conceded 1.6 goals per match. Despite the visitors’ potential to score, Boulogne’s poor finishing and the very low seasonal BTTS figures for both teams, at 0% each, more strongly support the scenario in which at least one team fails to score — BTTS No.

In their last five matches, Boulogne averaged just 0.6 goals, while Red Star conceded 1.0 goal per game over the same period, limiting the hosts’ attacking projection. The visitors have looked stronger offensively, averaging 1.4 goals with an xG of 1.67 across their last five appearances, but Boulogne should prevent a very high-scoring game despite conceding 1.6 goals per match. Both teams recorded at least three goals in 40% of their matches over the last five rounds, while the league-wide average stands at just 2.11 goals. The projected total of 2.30 goals suggests a realistic chance of two or three goals, but significantly reduces the probability of more than four goals. Therefore, the most stable pick is Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Red Star win after 90 minutes, as both teams drew the first half in 100% of the available seasonal data and conceded no goals before the break. The last five matches also point towards a cautious opening: Boulogne were level at half-time in 80% of cases, while Red Star did so in 60%, with an average of only 0.8 goals scored before the break across both teams. After half-time, the visitors’ advantage becomes more pronounced: Red Star averaged 0.8 goals in their last five second halves, while Boulogne conceded 1.0 goal on average during that period. The visitors also have the better current form, averaging 1.6 points per match and recording 2 wins in their last five appearances, compared with Boulogne’s 0.4 points per match and no wins. Although the hosts create more high-quality chances, with an average xG of 2.15 compared with 1.42, their recent finishing has been poor: they score only 0.6 goals per match, while Red Star average 1.4.