Boyacá Chicó vs Alianza Petrolera: match statistics

Boyacá Chicó have won 55% of their home matches and average 1.36 goals per game there, while Alianza Petrolera have won just 8% of their away fixtures and score only 0.50 goals per match. The hosts concede just 0.45 goals per home game and keep a clean sheet in 55% of their appearances, whereas the visitors have failed to score in 67% of their away matches. Chicó’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created: the hosts’ average xG is 1.19, while Alianza allow opponents an xG of 1.42. Recent form further supports the home side, who have conceded 5 goals in their last five matches, while Alianza have lost 4 of their last 5 games and scored just 1 goal across them. The visitors’ limited attacking output could nevertheless favor a relatively cautious, low-scoring result.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Alianza Petrolera’s very poor current attacking form: they have scored just 1 goal in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.2 per game, while both teams recorded BTTS in only 20% of their appearances during this period. The visitors failed to score in 67% of their matches this season, with an average of just 0.50 goals, making their scoring less likely despite Boyacá Chicó conceding an average of 1.43 goals. Boyacá Chicó have also lacked attacking efficiency, averaging 0.86 goals per game this season and 0.8 across their last five matches, which supports a low-scoring outcome. Alianza’s season BTTS rate stands at only 33%, well below the hosts’ 57% and the league average of 55%. A home goal is possible against a visiting defense conceding 1.83 goals per match, but the most likely scenario is that at least one side—primarily Alianza Petrolera—fails to score.

The projected goal total is 1.97, as Boyacá Chicó generate an average of 1.27 xG, while Alianza Petrolera allow opponents 1.42 xG. However, the visitors have a clear finishing problem: they score just 0.50 goals per match this season, and have netted only 1 goal in their last five games, averaging 0.20 per match. The low-scoring outlook is also supported by the hosts’ form: they have scored 4 goals in their last five games, with only 20% of those matches going Over 2.5 goals. Historically, 79% of Boyacá Chicó’s matches and 83% of Alianza’s games have finished Under 3.5 goals, with only 21% and 17% respectively going Over this line. The strongest pick is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as both teams rarely generate enough attacking threat to produce four goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time, as Boyacá Chicó draws 50% of its matches this season, while Alianza Petrolera wins only 8% of its games. Both teams often start cautiously: the half-time score was level in 43% of the hosts’ matches and 42% of the visitors’ matches, with averages of just 0.50 and 0.25 goals scored before the break, respectively. In their last five appearances, Alianza averaged only 0.2 goals per match and lost 4 of 5 games, while Boyacá Chicó also has limited attacking efficiency, averaging 0.8 goals. After the break, the recent form of both sides has been particularly conservative, with each team averaging zero goals scored in this period across their last five appearances. The hosts hold a slight qualitative edge, reflected in an xG of 1.27 compared with 1.02 and 3.21 shots on target per match compared with 2.50, but the high draw rate and low goal production increase the likelihood of a share of the points.