Boyacá Chicó vs Fortaleza CEIF: match statistics

Boyacá Chicó are clearly stronger at home: they win 56% of their home matches, score an average of 1.44 goals, and concede just 0.56 per game. Fortaleza CEIF have not won a single away match, recording a 55% loss rate and conceding an average of 1.91 goals on the road. The hosts also create slightly better chances, averaging 1.28 xG compared to the visitors’ 1.01, while Fortaleza keep a clean sheet away from home in just 9% of matches. Although Chicó’s recent form has been poor, with 4 defeats and only 2 goals scored in their last five matches, Fortaleza have also managed just 4 goals during this period and have drawn three times. The hosts’ advantage in home statistics, combined with Fortaleza’s very poor away efficiency, points towards a narrow Boyacá Chicó victory.

Although the seasonal BTTS figures are high—67% for Boyacá Chicó and 73% for Fortaleza CEIF—the teams’ current form clearly weakens the scenario of both sides scoring. In their last five matches, the hosts have averaged just 0.4 goals per game, recorded BTTS in only 20% of their outings, and produced a very low xG of 0.68. Fortaleza have also been unimpressive in front of goal, averaging 0.8 goals recently, but their defense has conceded just 0.8 goals per match during this period, compared with Chicó’s 2.6. The visitors have good reason to exploit their opponents’ defensive frailties; however, the combination of the hosts’ poor attacking output and Fortaleza’s defensive improvement more strongly supports BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team will fail to score.

The strongest signal is the low goal ceiling: Boyacá Chicó matches have never produced at least 4 goals, while Fortaleza recorded such an outcome in 36% of games. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.52 xG at home, but that figure has dropped to 0.68 xG over their last five matches, in which they scored just 2 goals, or 0.4 per game. Fortaleza have conceded only 4 goals in their last five outings, averaging 0.8 per match, which should limit the hosts’ potential despite the poor form of their defense. The projected total of 2.25 goals is below the league average of 2.53, while the season-long records for under 3.5 goals stand at 100% for Boyacá Chicó and 64% for Fortaleza. Therefore, Under 3.5 has a clear edge, although Over 1.5 goals remains likely, as both teams have surpassed that line in more than 82% of their matches this season.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Boyacá Chicó were level at the break in 58% of their matches, while Fortaleza recorded a half-time draw in as many as 40% of their last five games. The hosts average just 0.50 goals before the break, dropping to only 0.20 in their current five-match run, whereas Fortaleza have conceded just 0.40 goals in the first halves during this period. The likelihood of a draw at full-time is supported by Fortaleza’s 45% draw rate across the season and 60% in their last five appearances, with an average of only 0.80 goals conceded per match in that run. Boyacá Chicó’s seasonal advantage is reflected in their xG figures of 1.52 compared with 1.01, but the hosts’ disastrous current form — 0 points and a 2:13 goal difference over five matches — reduces the chances of them holding onto a lead or securing a convincing win.