Bra vs Ternana: match statistics

I predict an away win (Ternana). Ternana sits 6th versus Bra’s 18th, and as the away side concedes on average 0.94 goals per match with seasonal xG against of 1.22, while Bra at home concedes 1.35 goals with xG against 1.46. Bra score on average 1.24 goals at home with a conversion rate of 14% and a low rate of goalless matches at 18%, but Ternana generates higher expected xG (1.31 vs 1.09) and attempts slightly more shots per game (9.76 vs 9.12), suggesting better quality of created chances. In the last 5 matches Bra scored 3 goals and averages 1.0 points per game (1W-2D-2L), while Ternana has 5 goals and 0.6 points per game (0W-3D-2L), so the visitors’ form is weaker, yet seasonal defensive metrics and xG favor them. Based on this I assess the probability distribution as: away 45%, draw 30%, home 25%.

I predict both teams to score (BTTS: Yes) with a probability of 62% versus 38% for No. Over the season Bra has BTTS in 59% of matches with an average of 1.35 goals scored and 1.18 conceded, while Ternana has BTTS in 47% with 1.06 goals scored and 0.94 conceded, indicating a moderate propensity for both sides to score. xG and chance-creation metrics reinforce this signal: Bra xG_for 1.92 versus Ternana xG_against 1.22, and Ternana xG_for 1.31 versus Bra xG_against 1.21; Bra averages 14.41 shots (4.88 on target), Ternana 9.76 (3.06 on target). In the last 5 matches Ternana had BTTS in 80% and xG_last5 1.73 (5 goals total), whereas Bra only 40% BTTS, xG_last5 0.79 and 3 goals total — this weakens the home side, and additionally Ternana failed to score in 35% of their games this season. Overall, given Bra’s higher season BTTS rate (59% vs 47%), the significant xG figures for both teams and Bra’s 50 goals conceded versus Ternana’s 41 goals scored, I select 'Yes' (62%) as the more likely outcome.

A model combining xG and season averages yields an expectation of about 1.58 goals for Bra (attacking xG 1.92 vs Ternana defensive xG 1.22 -> avg ~1.57) and 1.25 for Ternana (attacking xG 1.31 vs Bra defensive xG 1.21 -> ~1.26), giving a total of 2.83 expected goals. The 2.83 total is 0.58 above the league average of 2.25 and, under a Poisson model (lambda=2.83), translates to ~77% probability of Over 1.5 goals and ~54% probability of Over 2.5 goals. Season metrics confirm Bra has 88% of matches with over 1.5 goals and Ternana 53%, while both teams have a high share of matches with at least one goal (Bra 100%, Ternana 88%), which increases the chance of an over. Additionally, the hosts average 14.41 shots and 4.88 on target versus Ternana’s 9.76/3.06, and both teams conceded 7 goals in their last 5 matches, indicating risk of goal exchanges. On this basis I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest signal — the highest probability (77%) and consistency between xG and season indicators support this line.

Bra has a clear offensive advantage: they score on average 1.35 goals per match versus Ternana’s 1.06, have xG 1.92 vs 1.31 and 4.88 shots on target compared to 3.06, which indicates greater threat already in the first half. The hosts lead at the break in 35% of matches and score on average 0.65 goals by half-time vs the visitors’ 0.35, so the scenario in which Bra is ahead after 45 minutes is more likely. Conservatively assuming that the hosts’ lead at the break is maintained in about 80% of those cases (35% * 80% ≈ 28%), this yields the highest probability for HT/FT = 1/1 — I assigned this 29%. Half-time draws also occur frequently (Bra 41%, Ternana 65%), hence the X/1 and X/X scenarios were given approximately 14% and 20% respectively. Given the xG and shots-on-target advantage, the most consistent signal from the data is 1/1.