Bradford City vs Peterborough United: match statistics

Bradford City sit 4th, while Peterborough United are only 17th, clearly highlighting the difference in their performances to date. The hosts have collected 7 points from their last five matches, recording 2 wins and a draw, whereas the visitors have managed just 4 points, losing 3 of those games. Bradford scored 5 goals and conceded only 4 during this period, while Peterborough netted just 3 and conceded 8—an average of 1.6 goals per match. The hosts’ superior defensive organization and the visitors’ lower attacking efficiency point towards a controlled Bradford City win. A draw remains a realistic outcome due to the hosts’ relatively low scoring output, but the advantage in both form and league position is firmly on their side.

The BTTS signal is limited, as both teams have produced this outcome in only 40% of their last 5 matches. Peterborough scored just 3 goals during this period, averaging 0.6 per game, which clearly increases the risk of the visitors failing to find the net again. Bradford averaged 1.0 goal, with an xG of 1.44, while Peterborough’s defense allowed opponents an xG of 2.05 and conceded 1.6 goals per match, making a goal for the home side likely. At the same time, the visitors’ attack, with an xG of 1.13, has no clear advantage over Bradford’s defense, which conceded only 4 goals in five matches, averaging 0.8. Therefore, the most likely outcome is a Bradford goal with at least one team failing to score — BTTS - No.

In their last five matches, Bradford averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Peterborough scored just 0.6 goals per game. The hosts created chances worth an average of 1.44 xG, while the visitors’ defense allowed opponents 2.05 xG, which is why Bradford’s projected total of around 1.40 goals carries the greatest weight in the forecast. Peterborough’s attack generated 1.13 xG, but it faces a team allowing just 1.18 xG and conceding 0.8 goals in its last five matches, limiting the visitors’ projection to 0.80 goals. Over 2.5 goals landed in only 20% of Bradford’s recent matches and 40% of Peterborough’s games, while both teams scored in just 40% of cases, so the Under 3.5 goals option has the strongest support in the data.

The strongest signal is a cautious first half: Bradford were level at half-time in 60% of their last five matches, while Peterborough were level in as many as 80%. During this period, the hosts conceded no goals before the break, while both teams averaged just 0.4 goals in the opening 45 minutes. After the interval, the advantage should shift towards Bradford, as they scored 0.6 goals after half-time in their last five matches, compared with just 0.2 for Peterborough, who also conceded an average of 1.4 goals during that period. Bradford also have the better overall match record: 1.4 points per game, a 40% win rate and just 0.8 goals conceded on average, compared with 0.8 points, a 20% win rate and 1.6 goals conceded by the visitors. The scenario of a draw at half-time followed by a home win best combines low scoring activity before the break with Peterborough’s clearly weaker second half.