Bragantino vs Coritiba: match statistics

Bragantino (5th) holds a clear statistical advantage: at home they average 1.78 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match, with xG 1.78 and xG against 0.99, whereas Coritiba (7th) away records 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, with xG 1.07 and xG against 1.87. The hosts create significantly more chances — on average 16.78 shots and 5.11 shots on target per game with 52% possession, versus Coritiba’s 9.8 shots, 3.1 on target and 38% possession. Recent form (last 5) also favors Bragantino: 3 wins and 2 draws, 10 goals scored and only 3 conceded (avg. 2.0 scored and 0.6 conceded), while Coritiba’s last 5 read 2-1-2 with 8 goals for and 9 against (1.6 scored and 1.8 conceded). Additionally, Bragantino scores in 89% of home matches (FTS 11%), while Coritiba fail to score in 30% of away fixtures; combined with the disparity in chance volume (16.78 vs 9.8) this gives the hosts a clear edge despite Coritiba’s higher shot conversion (~14%). I therefore predict a home win (1) with probability distribution: home 65%, draw 20%, away 15%.

Seasonal BTTS rates are 50% for Bragantino and 40% for Coritiba, while league-wide BTTS occurs in 57% of matches and clean sheets only in 25%/30%, which preliminarily supports a both teams to score scenario. In the last 5 matches Bragantino averaged 2.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded (10 scored, 3 conceded), whereas Coritiba averaged 1.6 scored and 1.8 conceded (8 scored, 9 conceded), so the home side is clearly stronger offensively and the visitors tend to concede. xG confirms chances are being created: xG_for 1.13 (Bragantino) vs 1.07 (Coritiba) and xG_against 1.77 vs 1.87 — both teams allow around 1.8 xG per match, which statistically favors conceded goals. Additionally Coritiba has 60% of matches over 2.5 goals this season, and shots/shots on target 10.63/3.5 vs 9.8/3.1 indicate sufficient offensive activity on both sides; therefore the strongest signal is BTTS - Yes, I assess probability at 62% versus 38% for No.

Both teams have strong chances of at least two goals: Bragantino has 63% of matches >1.5 this season, Coritiba 80%, and average xG is 1.13 (Bragantino) and 1.07 (Coritiba); matching attack vs defense (away defense 1.87 xG conceded, home defense 1.77 xG conceded) yields expected 1.50 for Bragantino and 1.42 for Coritiba (total 2.92), which strongly supports Over 1.5. In the last 5 matches Bragantino scored on average 2.0 goals, Coritiba 1.6 (combined 3.6), and the hosts conceded only 0.6 goals in their last 5, further boosting the probability of at least two goals. The 2.5 line gives mixed signals: season Over2.5 rates are 25% (Bragantino) and 60% (Coritiba), average ~42%, but the last 5 matches show 40% and 80% (average 60%), hence moderate support for Over 2.5 (about 58%). Support for 3.5 is weak — season Over3.5 is only 25% and 30%, and the expected 2.92 goals is below the 3.5 threshold, so Under 3.5 has a clear edge.

Bragantino led at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches (80%) and did not concede at half-time in those five games (average goals conceded by HT 0.0), which is the strongest signal for a home lead after 45 minutes. Supporting the home side further is that at their stadium they have 75% of matches with a half-time clean sheet and in the last 5 games they score on average 1.0 goals by HT, while Coritiba’s seasonal average is 0.8 goals by HT (seasonCSPercentageHT_home = 75%, last5_scoredAVGHT_overall_home = 1.0, scoredAVGHT_away = 0.8). Bragantino have won 3 of their last 5 matches (60% win rate in last 5), their xG is 1.13 versus Coritiba’s 1.07, and shots on target 3.5 versus 3.1, indicating a qualitative advantage and the ability to maintain a lead; from observation of the last 5 matches the conversion rate of a HT lead to an FT win is estimated at around 75%. The second half usually yields goals (averaging 1.63 for the home team and 1.5 for the away team in second halves), but the home side concedes on average only 0.6 goals in second halves across the last five matches, while Coritiba were trailing at half-time in 3 of 5 games (60%), which limits the visitors’ likelihood of a turnaround. Therefore the strongest and most justified HT/FT scenario is 1/1 (home side leads at half-time and wins at full-time).