Brentford vs Fulham: match statistics

Brentford is the favorite based on strong home metrics: they average 1.75 goals scored and concede 1.19 at home (goal difference +9), while Fulham on the road only scores 1.00 and concedes 1.69 (negative goal difference -11). The hosts register 4.06 shots on target per game versus Fulham’s 3.63 and have a higher conversion rate (15% conversion vs 9%), which translates into a lower share of matches without a goal (25% vs 38%). In the last 5 matches Brentford has recorded 5 draws and averaged 1.0 point per game, while Fulham have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses with 0.8 points per game, indicating weaker form from the visitors. xG numbers are similar (1.37 xG Brentford at home vs 1.28 xG Fulham away), so finishing will be decisive — given the hosts’ superior efficiency and defensive metrics, I predict a Brentford win.

Brentford at home has BTTS in 63% of matches, while Fulham away have 56% (league average 55%), providing an initial signal in favor of both teams scoring. xG models confirm this: Brentford has xG_for 1.52 versus Fulham xG_against 1.50, and Fulham has xG_for 1.28 versus Brentford xG_against 1.27, meaning both teams generate roughly 1.3–1.5 xG per game and have a real chance to score. Brentford averages 13.81 shots and 3.88 on target with a 12% conversion, while Fulham averages 11.31 shots and 3.63 on target with a 9% conversion; on the other hand Fulham fail to score in 38% of matches and have only 20% BTTS in the last 5 games, which lowers short-term confidence in the outcome. Brentford keep a clean sheet at home in 25% of matches, Fulham away only in 13%, so the probability that both teams will not keep a clean sheet in this fixture can be estimated at around 65% (75%×87%≈65%). Considering the season-long 63%/56%, xG alignment 1.52/1.50 and 1.28/1.27, and Fulham’s short-term dip in form, I recommend BTTS - Yes with a probability of 65% versus 35% for No Goal.

Based on xG and averages I expect around 2.79 total goals: Brentford ~1.51 (average of xG_for 1.52 and xG_against Fulham 1.50) and Fulham ~1.28 (average of xG_for 1.28 and xG_against Brentford 1.27). Brentford scores 1.69 goals at home on average and generates 13.81 shots (3.88 on target), Fulham averages 1.00 goal per game and 11.31 shots (3.63 on target), which increases the likelihood of at least two goals in the match. Seasonal metrics support Over 1.5: Brentford records over1.5 in 69% of home games, Fulham in 81% of their matches, and the league averages 2.73 goals per game — hence a strong rating for Over 1.5 (88%). Over 2.5 has moderate backing (Brentford 63% Over2.5 at home vs Fulham 50%), justifying a 62% estimate for Over 2.5, while Over 3.5 is rarer (25% and 31% seasonally) and therefore Under 3.5 appears safer (72%).

Brentford holds a clear edge: 56% home win rate versus Fulham’s 25% away win rate, and xG 1.52 vs 1.28, indicating a stronger home attacking profile. Draws are more common at half-time — Brentford were level at the break in 8 matches (50%), while Fulham led at half-time in only 2 matches (13%); Fulham also average just 0.31 first-half away goals. Brentford keep a first-half clean sheet in 75% of matches and score an average of 1.06 second-half goals versus Fulham’s 0.69, so the hosts have a higher probability of deciding the match after the interval. Additionally, Brentford average 13.81 shots and 3.88 on target at home compared to Fulham’s 11.31 and 3.63, and in their last 5 home games Brentford’s form is ddddd (5 draws), which increases the likelihood of a half-time draw and a home turnaround in the second half. Therefore the most reliable scenario is a Half-Time draw and Brentford full-time win (X/1); scenarios with Fulham leading at half-time are the least likely (historically only 13%).