Bryne vs Ranheim: match statistics

Ranheim are the favorites for this match: in the last 5 games they scored 13 goals (2.6 per match) versus Bryne's 6 goals (1.2 per match). Bryne conceded 11 goals in their last five matches (2.2 per match), while Ranheim allowed 7 goals (1.4 per match), indicating a clearer defensive organization from the visitors. In points form Ranheim average 1.8 points per match over the last 5 games, Bryne 1.2 points per match; in terms of results that's 3 wins for Ranheim versus 2 for Bryne. League positions (8 vs 15) and the superior goal record in the last 5 matches 13:7 vs 6:11 further favor the visitors. Therefore I forecast an away victory, given Ranheim's better attacking efficiency and more stable defense.

I back BTTS - Yes. The league has a high BTTS rate of 67% and an average of 4.0 goals per match, favoring both teams to score. In the last 5 games Bryne has BTTS 40%, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.2 on average, while Ranheim has BTTS 60%, scoring 2.6 and conceding 1.4 — this suggests Ranheim is almost certain to score and Bryne frequently concedes. Recent xG shows 1.35 for Bryne and 1.60 for Ranheim, with xG against 2.06 for Bryne; considering also Bryne’s 11 goals conceded and Ranheim’s 13 goals scored in five matches, I assess BTTS probability at 72% vs 28% and choose Yes (BTTS - Yes).

In the last 5 matches Bryne averaged 1.2 goals while Ranheim averaged 2.6, totaling 3.8 goals per game. An xG-based model gives 1.35 xG for the home side (xG_attack Bryne 1.35 vs xG_defense Ranheim 1.35) and 1.83 xG for the away side (xG_attack Ranheim 1.6 vs xG_defense Bryne 2.06), totaling 3.18 expected goals. Bryne conceded an average of 2.2 goals in their last 5 matches while Ranheim scored 2.6, which further increases the probability of away goals; historical over 2.5 rates are 80% for Bryne and 100% for Ranheim, and the league Over>2.5 is at 100%. Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 2.5 (expected 3.18 goals and high historical percentages), Over 1.5 is almost certain (~97%), whereas Over 3.5 remains possible but less likely (~40%).

Ranheim appears to be the favorite: in the last 5 matches they averaged 2.6 goals scored versus Bryne’s 1.2, while conceding 1.4 instead of 2.2, which translates into 60% wins for the visitors versus 40% for the home side. A draw at the break is more likely, as Bryne were level at half-time in 50% of recent matches and Ranheim in 60%, while Bryne led at the break in 0% of cases compared to Ranheim’s 20%. At the break the visitors also have better goal numbers: they score 0.8 goals on average by half-time versus Bryne’s 0.5 and concede only 0.4 instead of 1.0. After the break Ranheim are more active offensively — they average 1.8 goals in the second half versus Bryne’s 1.0, and the combined second-half average is 2.8 versus 1.75, suggesting decisive goals may come after the break. Based on these figures I select the scenario Draw at Half-Time and Ranheim to win Full-Time (X/2) as the strongest signal.