Bucheon 1995 vs Jeonbuk Motors: match statistics

Jeonbuk Motors are the clear favorites: they sit 3rd in the table vs Bucheon 1995 in 11th, with 20 goals scored and 12 conceded this season compared to Bucheon’s 9 scored and 15 conceded. In the last 5 matches Bucheon have scored only 1 goal and won 1 of 5 (form 'llwll'), while Jeonbuk have scored 11 goals and have 3 wins in their last 5 (form 'lwwwd'), translating to 0.6 points per match for Bucheon vs 2.0 for Jeonbuk. Home/away metrics also favor the visitors: Jeonbuk average 12.43 shots and 4.43 on target away with xG 1.52, while Bucheon at home average 10.17 shots and 3.67 on target with xG 1.27, with similar shot conversion ~7%. Defensively Jeonbuk concede only 0.57 goals away and keep 43% clean sheets, whereas Bucheon concede 1.33 goals at home, have 17% clean sheets and 0% home wins (50% losses). Considering the goal advantage (20–9), superior xG (1.52 vs 1.27), higher possession 51% vs 42% and better form, I predict an away win with probability 65% (draw 20%, home win 15%).

Looking at seasonal data, Bucheon has 67% BTTS at home and averages 2.33 goals per game with 1.33 conceded, while Jeonbuk has 43% BTTS away and averages 0.86 goals with 0.57 conceded. xG for both teams is similar: Bucheon xG_for 1.7 versus Jeonbuk 1.52, and xG_against is 1.34 versus 1.41, suggesting both sides create genuine scoring opportunities. Recent 5-game form is divergent — Bucheon has scored only 1 goal in the last 5 (0.2 per game) and had 0% BTTS, while Jeonbuk scored 11 goals in the last 5 (2.2 per game) and had 60% BTTS — this weakens the signal for Bucheon but reinforces that Jeonbuk can find the net. Additionally, Bucheon’s high shot efficiency (conversion rate 18% versus 7% for Jeonbuk) and the fact that 83% of Bucheon’s matches exceed 2.5 goals support a scenario where both teams score. Therefore I rate BTTS - Yes 62% vs 38% No.

Expected goals are around 1.56 for Bucheon and 1.43 for Jeonbuk, totaling 2.99 goals, which is clearly above the league average of 2.28. Seasonally Bucheon scores 2.33 goals per game and Jeonbuk 0.86, however in the last 5 matches Bucheon has dropped to 0.2 on average, while Jeonbuk scored 11 goals in five matches (2.2 average), which increases the visitors' scoring potential. In xG terms Bucheon generates 1.7 xG and concedes 1.34 xG, Jeonbuk has 1.52 xG and concedes 1.41 xG; Bucheon produces 13.0 shots (5.17 on target) with an 18% conversion rate, and Jeonbuk 12.43 shots (4.43 on target) with a 7% conversion, so I expect an exchange of clear chances. Considering that 83% of Bucheon’s matches this season are Over 2.5 and 100% are Over 1.5, while Jeonbuk has 60% of its last 5 matches above 2.5, the strongest signal is Over 2.5 (I assess at ~75%), Over 1.5 looks almost certain (~96%), whereas Over 3.5 is less likely (~32%).

Seasonal statistics show Bucheon scores an average of 2.33 goals per home game and 1.17 goals by half-time with xG 1.7, while Jeonbuk scores only 0.86 goals on average away (xG 1.52) and has a low conversion rate of 7% versus the home side’s 18%. At the same time Jeonbuk has not conceded by half-time on the road (average goals conceded by HT 0.0 and 100% clean sheets at the break), which favors a draw or goalless first half. In the second half Bucheon is more active – averaging 1.17 goals after the break and as many as 5 goals in the 76–90 minute window, whereas Jeonbuk concedes an average of 0.57 goals in second halves away and has 3 goals conceded in minutes 46–60, indicating greater chances for the home side after the interval. Considering seasonal home win rate of 67% for Bucheon versus 29% away wins for Jeonbuk and form distribution (Bucheon 20% wins in last 5, Jeonbuk 60%), the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Bucheon victory at full-time (HT/FT: X/1).