Burnley vs Charlton Athletic: match statistics

Burnley are still without a win this season, but average 1.25 goals per game at home, while Charlton Athletic concede as many as 2.25 on the road. The visitors allow opponents chances worth an average xG of 2.29, while creating just 0.85 xG per away game themselves; at home, Burnley record 1.18 xG in attack and 1.40 xG defensively. This gives Burnley a chance to break their winless run, particularly as Charlton have lost 2 of their 4 away matches so far. However, the risk of a draw remains significant: neither side have won any of their last 5 matches, and both have drawn 3 times during that spell, while Burnley have shared the points in 3 of their 4 home games.

The strongest signal points to Charlton failing to score: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their home matches, while the visitors have averaged just 0.4 goals across their last five games. Charlton’s attack generates an average of 0.85 xG away from home and registers 3 shots on target per match, limiting its chances of breaching the hosts’ defense. Burnley should create more opportunities, as Charlton concede an average of 2.25 goals away from home and allow opponents 2.29 xG. The main risk to the BTTS - No pick is that Burnley have conceded an average of 1.6 goals in their last five matches; however, the visitors’ recent lack of finishing quality outweighs this concern.

Burnley’s home matches average 1.0 goals, while Charlton’s away matches average 3.25 goals, so the teams’ data points in different directions. Burnley score just 0.75 goals per home match, but Charlton concede 2.25 goals away from home and allow opponents chances worth an average xG of 2.29, increasing the hosts’ scoring potential. On the other hand, Charlton have scored only 2 goals in their last 5 matches, and Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of each team’s last 5 games. Therefore, despite the visitors’ defensive frailties, Under 3.5 goals is the most convincing pick: 100% of Burnley’s home matches and 50% of Charlton’s away matches finished below that line.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Burnley were level at the break in 3 of the 4 matches analyzed and failed to score before half-time in any of them. Charlton also went into half-time level in 3 of their last 5 matches, although they conceded an average of 1.5 goals before the break in the matches analyzed, increasing the likelihood of the hosts taking an early lead. After half-time, Burnley scored an average of 0.75 goals and conceded none, while Charlton conceded an average of 0.75 goals. The case for a home win at full-time is also supported by an average of 2 points per match compared with the visitors’ 1, as well as Burnley’s xG of 1.27 against the 2.29 xG conceded by Charlton. However, both teams drew 3 of their last 5 matches, so X/X remains a notable alternative, although the strongest signal points to X/1.