Busan I'Park vs Yongin City: match statistics

Busan I'Park are clear favorites: they have won 5 of their last 5 matches and scored 13 goals in those games (2.6 goals per match), while Yongin City have yet to win this season (0 wins) and have scored only 4 goals in their last 5 matches (0.8 goals per match). At home Busan average 2.0 goals scored and concede 1.0 goal per match, whereas Yongin away average 0.5 goals scored and concede 1.5 goals, giving a clear home advantage both offensively and defensively. Busan remain unbeaten at home (0% home losses) and have 0% home matches without scoring, while Yongin have not won away (0% away wins) and fail to score in 50% of their away games. xG figures show Yongin generate more expected chances on the road (xG 1.66 vs 1.15 for Busan), but their shot efficiency is drastically lower (conversion 3% on an average of 14.5 shots versus Busan’s 21% conversion on 9.5 shots), so the real threat is limited. Considering Busan’s 5-game winning run, the advantage in goals per match (2.0 vs 0.5) and superior efficiency, I forecast a home win.

Busan I'Park has a seasonal BTTS rate of 75% and BTTS in the last 5 matches at 100%, while Yongin City has a seasonal BTTS of 50% and 60% in the last 5. Busan concedes an average of 2.0 goals per match this season (xG against 1.61) and has scored 13 goals in the last 5 matches (2.6 avg) with an average attacking xG of 1.52, indicating both offensive form from the home side and defensive vulnerability. Yongin averages 0.5 goals per match this season and 0.8 in the last 5 matches (4 goals total), but averages 14.5 shots per match and has a seasonal xG_for of 1.66, so they create many chances despite a low conversion rate of 3%. The league has an overall BTTS of 65% and Busan has 0% clean sheets seasonally versus Yongin's 50%; additionally Yongin has conceded 9 goals in the last 5 matches (1.8 per match), which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. On this basis I tip BTTS = Yes (75%) against 25% for No BTTS, because the strongest signal is the high BTTS frequency from the hosts (75% season, 100% last 5) and the significant number of chances created by the opponents (14.5 shots and xG 1.66), while Busan concedes an average of 2.0 goals.

The model estimates 1.26 goals for Busan I'Park and 1.63 for Yongin, totaling 2.89 goals (calculated as the average of team attacking xG and opponent defensive xG: (1.09+1.42)/2 and (1.66+1.61)/2). Busan have scored 13 goals in their last 5 matches (2.6 per game) and conceded 6 (1.2), so those fixtures averaged 3.8 goals, while Yongin have 4 scored (0.8) and 9 conceded (1.8) in their last 5. Season-to-date Busan have 75% of home matches Over 2.5 goals, Yongin 50%, and in the last 5 Busan have 100% Over 2.5 versus 60% for Yongin, which strengthens the Over signal. Additionally, Busan shows higher shot efficiency (conversion 16% vs 3%) despite a lower average of shots (7.75 vs 14.5), indicating finishing efficiency and a real probability of goals. For these reasons the best line to play is Over 2.5 (strongest signal) — the estimated probability of Over 2.5 is 72%.

In the last 5 matches Busan I'Park have won all 5 (100%) and led at the break in 4 of 5 (80%), which strongly supports the home side leading at Half-Time. In their last 5 matches Busan average 1.0 goals by Half-Time (last5_scoredAVGHT_overall_home = 1.0), while Yongin City average 0.4 (last5_scoredAVGHT_overall_away = 0.4); seasonally Busan record 0.75 goals by Half-Time versus 0.0 for Yongin (scoredAVGHT_home = 0.75, scoredAVGHT_away = 0.0). Yongin produce significantly more shots (14.5 vs 7.75) and have a higher xG (1.66 vs 1.09), but their shots conversion is only 3% versus 16% for Busan, so the advantage in chances does not translate proportionally into goals. Additionally Yongin keep a clean sheet in 50% of away games (seasonCSPercentage_away = 50%) and practically never lead at Half-Time this season (leadingAtHTPercentage_away = 0%), which reduces their likelihood of leading before the break; therefore the most probable HT/FT outcome is 1/1.