Bylis Ballsh vs AF Elbasani: match statistics

AF Elbasani are the favorites: they have 17 wins this season versus Bylis' 9, scored 46 goals and conceded 32, while Bylis have 34 scored and 44 conceded. In the last 5 matches Elbasani have scored 11 goals and averaged 2.0 points per game (3W-1D-1L), whereas Bylis scored 6 goals and average 1.6 pts/game (2W-2D-1L). Away, the visitors score 1.41 goals on average with a 15% conversion and only 12% of matches without a goal; the hosts at home score 1.18, have 12% conversion and as many as 35% of matches without scoring, which gives Elbasani an advantage in attacking efficiency. The home defense is relatively tight — Bylis at home concede 0.94 goals per game and have 1.21 xG against, while Elbasani away concede 1.35 goals and have 1.59 xG against, so the hosts can limit the number of chances. In summary, due to the better record (17 wins vs 9), superior form in the last 5 matches (11 goals) and the low share of goalless games 12% for the visitors, I predict a win for AF Elbasani, with a draw as an alternative outcome.

Visitors show a clear signal for BTTS - season BTTS rate 65% and as high as 80% in the last 5 matches, while hosts have 47% for the season and 40% in the last 5, suggesting an advantage toward both teams scoring. In the short term the away side scored 11 goals in 5 matches (avg 2.2) and the home side 6 goals (1.2), with visitors conceding 1.4 goals on average in their last five — these figures increase the likelihood of an exchange of goals. Although the hosts have 53% clean sheets at home and on average concede 0.53 goals at home this season, their xG for 1.41 versus the visitors’ xG against 1.59 and a higher number of shots (10.94 vs 8.94) indicate they will create chances. The away team are also more efficient in conversion (15% vs 12%) and have a season-high 65% BTTS, which offsets the hosts’ home clean sheets. Therefore I favor BTTS = Yes and propose a split of 65% for Yes and 35% for No.

The model yields total expected xG of 2.68 (1.50 for Bylis Ballsh and 1.18 for AF Elbasani), calculated as the average of each team’s offense and the opponent’s defense (Bylis xG_for 1.41 vs xG conceded by Elbasani 1.59; Elbasani xG_for 1.19 vs xG conceded by Bylis 1.17). From a Poisson distribution with λ=2.68, the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is approximately 74.8%, and at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) about 50.1%, therefore I recommend the 1.5 line. Seasonal stats support this view: the share of matches over 1.5 is 59% for Bylis and 65% for Elbasani, while at the 2.5 line it is 35% and 53% respectively, showing Elbasani’s greater propensity for overs. Although Bylis has 53% clean sheets, Elbasani scored 11 goals in the last 5 matches (2.2 average) and has xG 1.15 over the last 5, and the percentage of matches with both teams scoring is 47% (Bylis) vs 65% (Elbasani), which further increases the likelihood of at least 2 goals.

The strongest signal concerns the first half: Bylis were level at half-time in 13 home matches, i.e. in 76% of games, with an average of only 0.06 goals conceded and 0.47 goals scored by half-time, which strongly indicates a Half-Time draw (often 0-0). After the break, the hosts gain the advantage — seasonal points per game for the home side are 2.12 versus 1.53 for visitors, and the home win rate is 59% versus 41% for away teams, so hosts more often decide matches in their favor. This is confirmed by offensive and defensive numbers: hosts generate higher xG (1.41 vs 1.19), register more shots on target (4.35 vs 3.75) and keep a clean sheet at home in 53% of matches. In the second half the hosts average 1.29 goals and have a positive goal balance of +6 in second halves versus -1 for guests, which increases the probability of a turnaround in favor of the home side; hence the pick X/1 is the strongest signal.