CA La Paz vs Piratas: match statistics

Piratas remain unbeaten this season, with a record of 2 wins and 1 draw, while CA La Paz have lost 4 of their last 5 matches. The strongest argument in favor of the visitors is their defense: they have conceded no goals either throughout the competition or in their last five matches, while away from home they allow opponents just 0.53 xG. CA La Paz lost their only home match so far, failed to score despite an average xG of 1.59, and concede an average of 1 goal at home. Piratas score an average of 1.5 goals per away match, have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games, and boast a positive goal difference of +3. The hosts take slightly more shots, 15 compared to 14, but their lack of home goals and four-match losing streak clearly increase the visitors’ chances of victory.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No, as Piratas have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches so far and have conceded no goals in their last five games. Their defensive xG against stands at just 0.53 for the season and 0.68 across their last five appearances, while CA La Paz score only 1.0 goal per match on average. BTTS - No has occurred in every match involving both teams this season, and the visitors’ recent run also shows 0% of matches with goals from both sides. CA La Paz do have 1.66 xG and average 6.0 shots on target in their recent matches, but facing Piratas’ highly resilient defense clearly reduces the hosts’ chances of scoring. Therefore, a scenario in which at least one team fails to score is more likely than both teams finding the net.

The strongest signal is the low potential for a very high-scoring game: Piratas have kept a clean sheet in their last 5 matches, while their average xG conceded is only 0.68. CA La Paz have created chances worth an average of 1.66 xG in their last 5 games, but their opponents have also kept clean sheets in 100% of their matches this season, limiting the hosts’ projection to 0.75 goals. The visitors may exploit La Paz’s weaker defense, which has conceded 1.8 goals per game across their last five outings and allowed 1.38 xG, although they themselves generate an average of 1.28 xG. Despite the league averaging 3.04 goals per match, both teams have gone under 3.5 goals in 100% of their games this season, making Under 3.5 the most likely pick.

A draw at half-time is the strongest signal, as in 100% of their matches so far this season, both teams were level after 45 minutes, scoring and conceding no goals during that period. Piratas have also recorded a 100% half-time draw rate in their recent matches, averaging 0.0 goals scored and conceded before the break. After the interval, the advantage shifts to the visitors: in their last five matches, they averaged 1.33 goals scored in the second half and conceded none, while CA La Paz conceded as many as 1.6 goals during that period. The full-time results also favor Piratas, who won 67% of their recent matches and remained unbeaten, compared with the hosts’ 20% win rate and 80% loss rate. Although CA La Paz have higher average xG, 1.55 versus 1.40, and average 6.0 shots on target per match compared with 2.5, their defensive weakness after the break makes the HT/FT draw/Piratas win scenario the most likely outcome.