CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: match statistics

CA La Paz has a clear advantage in chance creation at home: averaging 16.62 shots per match, 7.23 on target, 57% possession and 1.96 average xG, while Tepatitlán away records 12.33 shots, 5.07 on target, 48% possession and 1.5 xG. The hosts score 1.92 goals at home on average and fail to score in only 8% of matches, whereas the visitors score 1.2 goals away and remain goalless in 40% of away games, which significantly limits their offensive potential. On the other hand Tepatitlán defends solidly by the numbers — conceding 1.07 goals away versus La Paz’s 1.46 conceded at home, and xG against is similar (1.41 vs 1.39), so both teams have scoring chances. In the last 5 matches the visitors have better points and goal output (2.0 points per game and 12 goals) than the hosts (1.6 points and 9 goals), but Tepatitlán’s high draw rate away (53%) and La Paz’s superiority in chance creation lead to favoring the hosts. Ultimately I back a CA La Paz win, though a draw remains a realistic and significant option.

In the league BTTS rate is 56%, with season values of 44% (CA La Paz) and 53% (Tepatitlán), which on average favors a both-teams-to-score scenario. In the last 5 matches the home side registered BTTS in 60% of games, while the visitors in 40%; the visitors averaged 2.4 goals in those five matches versus 1.8 for the hosts, highlighting their offensive potential. Season goal stats show CA La Paz scoring 1.56 and conceding 0.75 per match, while Tepatitlán scores 1.2 and concedes 1.07; additionally xG is 1.8 for the home side versus 1.41 xG against the visitors, and the visitors have xG 1.5 versus 1.25 for the hosts' defense. The low clean sheet percentage for the visitors at 27% (versus 44% for the hosts) and a similar number of shots on target (5.44 vs 5.07) increase the likelihood of goals from both sides, therefore I tip BTTS - Yes.

Based on xG I calculated expected goals: 1.61 for CA La Paz (xG attack 1.80 and Tepatitlán xG defense 1.41) and 1.37 for Tepatitlán (xG attack 1.50 and home defense 1.25), totalling approximately 2.98 goals. This is slightly above the league average of 2.91, and seasonal metrics confirm a scoring tendency — CA La Paz has Over 1.5 in 75% of matches, Tepatitlán in 53%, with Over 0.5 in 94% and 80% of games respectively. Additionally, the hosts average 15.38 shots (5.44 on target) versus the visitors' 12.33 (5.07 on target), with an equal conversion rate of 10%, which increases the likelihood of at least two goals. A probabilistic model with μ≈2.98 yields about an 80% chance of Over 1.5, roughly 57% for Over 2.5 and about 35% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5. I recommend the over side at the 1.5 line as the most statistically justified option.

CA La Paz has a clear home advantage: they average 1.56 goals per match, record 1.88 points per match and win 56% of games, whereas Tepatitlán have only a 20% win rate and 1.13 points per match. The hosts lead at the break in 7 of 16 matches (44%) and score an average of 0.81 goals in the first half; 88% of their home fixtures feature at least one goal before halftime, so an HT lead for the home side is likely. CA La Paz have an xG of 1.8 versus the visitors’ xG of 1.5, and the away defense concedes an average of 1.41 xG per match; additionally the hosts have scored 9 goals in minutes 76–90, indicating a strong ability to close out games after the interval. On that basis the most probable scenario is the home team leading at half-time and winning after 90 minutes (1/1) at 25% probability, with notable alternatives: half-time draw and home win (X/1 16%) and the reverse scenario where the visitors lead at the break and win (2/2 21%) due to the visitors’ good recent form, having led at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches (80%).