CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: match statistics
CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
CA La Paz play Tepatitlán de Morelos in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match date is 11 April 2026 at 05:00. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
CA La Paz: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Tepatitlán de Morelos: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
CA La Paz scores 1.60 and concedes 1.53 goals per match. Tepatitlán de Morelos scores 1.35 and concedes 0.95. League average: 2.85 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: CA La Paz 60%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 50%. Over 2.5: CA La Paz 57%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 35%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
CA La Paz has higher xG: 1.60 vs 1.59. CA La Paz: 13.5 shots per match, Tepatitlán de Morelos: 13.2.
Match halves
CA La Paz: half-time lead 37%, second-half goals 0.70. Tepatitlán de Morelos: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.78.
Goals by minute
CA La Paz: 31-45+ (13 goals). Tepatitlán de Morelos: 76-90+ (22 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 2.85 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
CA La Paz has a clear advantage in chance creation at home: averaging 16.62 shots per match, 7.23 on target, 57% possession and 1.96 average xG, while Tepatitlán away records 12.33 shots, 5.07 on target, 48% possession and 1.5 xG. The hosts score 1.92 goals at home on average and fail to score in only 8% of matches, whereas the visitors score 1.2 goals away and remain goalless in 40% of away games, which significantly limits their offensive potential. On the other hand Tepatitlán defends solidly by the numbers — conceding 1.07 goals away versus La Paz’s 1.46 conceded at home, and xG against is similar (1.41 vs 1.39), so both teams have scoring chances. In the last 5 matches the visitors have better points and goal output (2.0 points per game and 12 goals) than the hosts (1.6 points and 9 goals), but Tepatitlán’s high draw rate away (53%) and La Paz’s superiority in chance creation lead to favoring the hosts. Ultimately I back a CA La Paz win, though a draw remains a realistic and significant option.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| CA La Paz | Tepatitlán de Morelos | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 300% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - CA La Paz · 1.6 pts / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
CA La Paz is 19% better for: goals scored per match.
1.6 goals / match - CA La Paz · 1.35 goals / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 61% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.53 goals / match - CA La Paz · 0.95 goals / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
CA La Paz scores in 83% of matches (25 of 30 matches), while Tepatitlán de Morelos keeps a clean sheet in 35% (14 of 40 matches).
Tepatitlán de Morelos scores in 73% of matches (29 of 40 matches), while CA La Paz keeps a clean sheet in 27% (8 of 30 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — CA La Paz
Over / Under — Tepatitlán de Morelos
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
CA La Paz is 16% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.47 pts / match - CA La Paz · 1.27 pts / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
CA La Paz - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 37% of matches and wins 30%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Tepatitlán de Morelos - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 0% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -6 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (13 goli). Concedes most in 16-30 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (22 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +13 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
CA La Paz
Tepatitlán de Morelos
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| CA La Paz | Liga | Tepatitlán de Morelos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.13 | 2.85 | ▼ 2.30 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 60% | 57% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 57% | 53% | ▼ 35% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 27% | 25% | ▲ 35% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 80% | 74% | • 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 77% | 80% | ▼ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: CA La Paz 1 - 0 - 0 Tepatitlán de Morelos. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
The Ascenso MX match finished CA La Paz 1:1 Tepatitlán de Morelos. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
CA La Paz score 1.60 goals per game on average and Tepatitlán de Morelos 1.35. The Ascenso MX average is 2.85 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 60% of CA La Paz's matches and 50% of Tepatitlán de Morelos's.
What form are CA La Paz and Tepatitlán de Morelos in?
Over the last 5 games CA La Paz have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
The statistical background for CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán de Morelos — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.