CA Osasuna vs Levante UD: match statistics

CA Osasuna have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 7 goals during that run, while Levante also have a record of 3 victories but have scored one goal fewer. However, the key factor is the visitors’ away form: they lost their only match to date, failed to score and conceded as many as 3 goals. Levante created chances worth just 0.49 xG away from home, while allowing 1.70 xG at their own goal, indicating a clear advantage for their opponents in terms of chance quality. Osasuna do not yet have a meaningful sample of home-match data, but given Levante’s attacking weakness away from home, they should be able to control the game more often. Both teams have conceded 6 goals in their last five matches, so a clean sheet for the hosts is far from certain, but an Osasuna victory remains the more likely outcome.

The signal for BTTS is mixed, but the scenario in which at least one team fails to score remains slightly stronger. In the available season data, Levante averaged 0.0 goals, failed to score in 100% of matches and recorded no BTTS games, although the sample appears to be very small. In their last five matches, the visitors improved their average to 1.2 goals, but their xG is only 0.96, while Osasuna allows opponents an xG of 1.30. Osasuna has recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five appearances and averages 1.4 goals, while Levante has BTTS in only 40% of matches, with both teams conceding 1.2 goals per game. With the league BTTS rate at 50%, the edge for BTTS - No is minimal, based mainly on Levante’s weaker attacking indicators.

In their last five matches, Osasuna averaged 1.4 goals scored, while Levante averaged 1.2, with both teams conceding an identical average of 1.2 goals. The overall xG picture also points to at least two goals: the home side created chances worth 1.27 xG, and the visitors 0.96 xG, while their opponents allowed 1.30 and 1.18 xG respectively. At least three goals were scored in 60% of the teams’ last five matches, but the projected total of 2.36 goals does not yet provide a clear edge for Over 2.5. The strongest signal is Over 1.5, as both sides’ current scoring form and the league average of 2.83 goals clearly support a scenario featuring at least two goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Osasuna victory, as Levante were level after 45 minutes in 80% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Osasuna. The home side were also more solid defensively before the break, conceding an average of 0.4 goals compared with Levante’s 0.8, which increases the likelihood of an even start. After the interval, Osasuna scored an average of 1.2 goals per match, while Levante managed just 0.8, and in 4 of the hosts’ 5 matches, the second half produced at least 2 goals. Across their last five appearances, Osasuna averaged 1.4 goals to Levante’s 1.2, while both teams recorded 1.8 points per match, meaning the home advantage is moderate but sufficient to support the X/1 HT/FT outcome.