CA Osasuna vs Sevilla FC: match statistics

I expect CA Osasuna to win this match: at home they win 53% of games, score on average 1.73 goals and concede 1.13 per match. Sevilla win only 25% of away games, average 1.13 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per away match, with an away goal difference of -12. Osasuna also have superior xG and chance quality – xG 1.59 at home versus Sevilla’s 1.21 and more shots on target (5.07 vs 3.31), while the shutout rate is 0% for Osasuna compared to 25% for Sevilla. In the last 5 matches the hosts scored 5 goals and average 1.0 point per game, whereas Sevilla have 4 goals, 0.6 points per game and have conceded 11 goals in that period. Considering higher efficiency (shot conversion 12% for Osasuna vs 10% for Sevilla) and the visitors’ weaker defense, I assign Osasuna about a 62% chance, a draw 23% and Sevilla 15%.

Both teams have seasonal BTTS rates of 63% (Osasuna) and 56% (Sevilla), averaging 59.5% and exceeding the league BTTS level of 56%. This season Osasuna scores 1.31 and concedes 1.44 goals per match, while Sevilla scores 1.13 and concedes 1.88, so both teams both create and allow scoring opportunities. In the last 5 matches Osasuna had BTTS 60% (5 scored and 7 conceded, averaging 1.0 scored/1.4 conceded), whereas Sevilla had BTTS 40% (4 scored and 11 conceded, averaging 0.8/2.2), suggesting Osasuna is more likely to score while Sevilla frequently concedes. xG data confirm this picture: Osasuna xG_for 1.32 versus Sevilla xG_against 1.34, Sevilla xG_for 1.21 versus Osasuna xG_against 1.15, and shots on target 3.63 vs 3.31 plus low clean sheet percentages 13%/19% further increase the probability of both teams scoring. In light of the above figures I pick BTTS - Yes with a probability of 67% versus 33% for No.

The combined xG is 1.32 for Osasuna and 1.21 for Sevilla (total 2.53); averaging team-scored xG and opponent-allowed xG (1.32 vs 1.34 for the home side; 1.21 vs 1.15 for the away side) yields an expected 1.33 goals for the home team and 1.18 for the visitors, total 2.51. Season percentages for Over 1.5 are 88% for Osasuna and 81% for Sevilla, and BTTS stands at 63% and 56% with a league average of 2.68 goals, which strongly supports Over 1.5 (86%). For the 2.5 line, season-long Over is 56% for both teams, but in the last 5 matches Over25 has dropped to 40% for each; considering the expected xG of 2.51 and the fact that Sevilla conceded 11 goals in their last 5 fixtures, I give a moderate edge to Over 2.5 (53%). Over 3.5 occurs season-wide in only 25% (Osasuna) and 31% (Sevilla) of matches, and average shots on target of 3.63/3.31 with conversion rates of 12%/10% do not frequently indicate 4+ goals, so I assess Over 3.5 at 28%.

Osasuna led at the break in 7 of 16 matches this season (44%), while Sevilla led at half-time in only 1 of 16 (6%), with 5 half-time draws (31%). The home side posts superior creation and efficiency metrics: average xG 1.32 vs 1.21, more on-target shots (3.63 vs 3.31) and a higher conversion rate (12% vs 10%), which increases the likelihood that Osasuna will establish a lead during the first 45 minutes. Sevilla, however, wins the second half in 44% of cases and averages 1.5 points in second halves (24 points total); they have also scored 5 goals in the 61–75 minute window (vs 0 for Osasuna), so there is a real risk of a turnaround after the break. Over the season the hosts score more goals (1.31 vs 1.13) and collect more half-time points (26 vs 10), while Sevilla concedes an average of 1.88 goals per match, limiting their ability to hold a lead. In light of these figures the strongest signal is the 1/1 scenario (Osasuna leading at half-time and winning at full-time), which therefore receives the highest probability; alternatives involving a Sevilla comeback receive smaller shares.