Cádiz vs FC Andorra: match statistics

FC Andorra is the favorite in this fixture: they sit 11th versus 18th Cádiz, and the visitors have scored 50 goals this season compared to the hosts' 33. The difference over the last five matches is clear — Andorra have scored 14 goals and average 1.6 points per game in that period, while Cádiz have only 4 goals and 0.6 points per game. Chance quality also favors Andorra: on average 4.94 shots on target and 13.24 attempts per game with an 11% conversion rate, versus 3.59 on target and 12.18 attempts for Cádiz (8% conversion), and the visitors’ xG is 1.46 compared to the hosts’ 1.38. The home side has some advantage in clean sheets at home (35% vs Andorra’s 12% away), but their home record is weak (goal difference -7 and 53% losses), and they have conceded 11 goals in the last 5 matches versus 7 for Andorra. Considering the superior efficiency, higher possession (57% vs 50%) and the visitors’ form, I predict an FC Andorra victory.

Both teams have high season BTTS rates: Cádiz 71% and FC Andorra 65%, both above the league average of 55%, indicating a strong tendency for matches with goals at both ends. In the last 5 fixtures Andorra scored 14 goals (2.8 per game), whereas Cádiz has only 4 goals (0.8) and conceded on average 2.2 goals, which increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. Season xG are 1.74 for Cádiz and 1.46 for Andorra, with xG against 1.08 for Cádiz and 1.6 for Andorra; additionally, average on-target shots are 5.06 (Cádiz) and 4.94 (Andorra), showing both teams create chances and can convert them into goals. Clean sheets are rare: Cádiz 24% and Andorra 12%, and over 2.5 rate is 53% for Cádiz and 59% for Andorra, further supporting the BTTS scenario. As a result I consider the "yes" scenario stronger and, pricing the risk, assign 72% to BTTS=yes and 28% to BTTS=no.

The model projects a total of 2.94 goals: Cádiz ~1.67 (xG_for 1.74 vs opponent xG_against 1.60) and FC Andorra ~1.27 (xG_for 1.46 vs opponent xG_against 1.08). Seasonal >1.5 percentages are high: Cádiz 71% and Andorra 88%, and both teams have BTTS rates of 71% and 65% respectively, which strongly supports a scenario of at least two goals — hence over 1.5 at 88%. For the 2.5 line the signal is mixed: seasonally Cádiz 53% and Andorra 59% of matches exceed 2.5, and in the last 5 matches the figures are 80% (Cádiz) and 60% (Andorra), yielding a moderate edge for Over 2.5 (~62%). Over 3.5 is unlikely given seasonal rates of 24% (Cádiz) and 35% (Andorra), so I estimate only ~30% probability of over 3.5 goals. In summary, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (pick: over, line 1.5) — combined xG 2.94, high >1.5 percentages (71% vs 88%) and frequent BTTS increase the likelihood of at least two goals.

The strongest signal points to FC Andorra leading at half-time and the match finishing as a draw: Andorra scored 5 goals in minutes 0–15 compared to just 1 by Cádiz, and half-time leads are 29% for Andorra versus 18% for the home side. Cádiz, however, is very active late in matches — the hosts have scored 9 goals in minutes 76–90, while Andorra conceded 9 in the same phase, which increases the chance of a turnaround after the break. The form differential confirms this picture: Cádiz’s last five results read WLLLL with an average points per game of 0.6, while Andorra’s read D L W D W with an average of 1.6, so the visitors more frequently take leads and collect points over the short term. Additionally, Cádiz generates more opportunities (xG 1.74 versus Andorra’s 1.46), meaning they have the capacity to force an equalizer; therefore the HT/FT scenario of Andorra leading at half-time and the match finishing level is the most substantiated.