Cádiz vs UD Las Palmas: match statistics

UD Las Palmas arrive in significantly better form, having won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 9 goals in total, while Cádiz have failed to win any of their last five games, recording 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats. The visitors are highly effective away from home, averaging 2 goals from just 7 attempts per match, with a finishing efficiency of 29%; Cádiz score only 0.5 goals per home game and failed to find the net in 50% of those matches. The hosts do have better chance-creation metrics, with an average xG of 1.33 compared to Las Palmas’ 0.94, but their conversion rate stands at just 4%, limiting the practical value of this advantage. Las Palmas’ away defense concedes as many as 2.5 goals per game, giving Cádiz a solid chance of scoring; however, the visitors’ attacking form and their average of 4.5 shots on target away from home point slightly towards an away win.

The case for both sides to score is strengthened by their current form: Cádiz had BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Las Palmas recorded it in 60%. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, whereas the visitors scored 1.8 goals and conceded 1.4 on average. Las Palmas failed to score in none of the matches in the seasonal data, and their average of 2.0 away goals aligns well with the 2.5 goals conceded away from home by Cádiz’s opponents. However, Cádiz have only 0.90 xG and failed to score in 50% of their matches, which limits confidence in this pick, particularly as the league-wide BTTS average is just 39%. Despite these reservations, the weaker recent defensive performances of both teams, with a combined 16 goals conceded across their last five matches, slightly tilt the prediction towards BTTS - Yes.

The model projects 2.45 goals, as Cádiz generates an average of 0.90 xG, while Las Palmas allows as much as 1.81 xG away from home, raising the hosts’ projected output to around 1.35 goals. The visitors score an average of 2.0 goals, but Cádiz’s home defense concedes only 0.5 goals per match and has kept a clean sheet in 50% of its games. In their last five matches, both teams recorded at least three goals in 60% of their games, but their average xG stood at just 1.06 and 0.95, respectively, meaning that such high conversion rates may not be fully replicated. Cádiz have not recorded a home match with at least four goals, while the league average is 2.27 goals. The strongest selection is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as a four-goal or higher outcome would require a result well above the projected level.

Las Palmas are in clearly better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 1.8 goals, while Cádiz have not won a single game, scoring 1.2 goals and conceding as many as 1.8. The signal from the first halves is particularly strong, as the visitors led at the break in 60% of their recent matches, whereas the hosts did so on none of those occasions; Cádiz conceded an average of 1.2 goals before half-time, compared with 0.4 for Las Palmas. After the break, Las Palmas still hold the offensive edge, averaging 1.0 goal per match, while Cádiz have managed just 0.6. Although both teams’ season-long xG figures are low and similar—0.94 for the visitors and 0.90 for the hosts—Las Palmas’ defense allows opponents an xG of 1.81, meaning HT/FT scenarios involving a draw at half-time still retain a significant probability. The most likely outcome, however, remains a scenario in which the in-form visitors take the lead before the break and maintain it until full-time: X/2.