Caldas vs Lusitano Évora 1911: match statistics

Lusitano Évora 1911 are showing clearly better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and average 1.0 more points per game than Caldas (1.8 compared with 0.8). During this period, the visitors scored 5 goals and conceded only 4, while Caldas scored 4 and conceded as many as 7. Caldas’ run includes 3 defeats in five matches, highlighting problems both with protecting leads and limiting opponents’ chances. Both teams lost their only league fixture so far by 0:1, so the current-season sample remains limited, but recent form more clearly favors the visitors. Lusitano’s advantage in results and goal difference gives them a greater chance of securing an away win.

The “No” pick is supported by the league’s low-scoring profile, with only 30% of matches ending with both teams scoring and an average of 1.9 goals per game. Caldas have scored just 0.8 goals per match across their last five games, finding the net 4 times in total, and have yet to score in the season data. Lusitano Évora 1911 are more effective, averaging 1.0 goal in their last five appearances, but they also concede only 0.8 goals per match and have allowed 4 goals during this period. Recent BTTS figures stand at 60% for Caldas and 40% for the visitors, but Lusitano’s defensive advantage and the hosts’ limited attacking output favor a scenario in which at least one team fails to score. Caldas’ xG of 1.05 over their last five matches, compared with Lusitano’s xG against of 1.08, does not provide a sufficiently strong argument for a certain home goal.

Data from the last five matches points to a moderate scoring rate: Caldas averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Lusitano Évora scored 1.0 and allowed opponents to score 0.8 goals. The average xG over this period stands at 1.05 for Caldas and 1.23 for Lusitano, resulting in a projection close to 2.0 goals rather than an open, high-scoring game with four goals. For both teams, only 40% of their last five matches went over the 2.5-goal line. In addition, the league-wide average is just 1.9 goals per match, and only 30% of games finish with at least three goals. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as even with a potential 1:1 or 1:2 result, there remains a clear safety margin.

Lusitano Évora 1911 have a clearly stronger recent run: they have won three of their last five matches and averaged 1.8 points, while Caldas have won only once and averaged 0.8 points. The visitors’ advantage is particularly evident before half-time, as they were leading at the break in 60% of their recent matches, scoring an average of 0.8 goals and conceding just 0.2, compared with Caldas’ 0.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. The hosts have scored only 0.8 goals per match across their last five appearances, while allowing opponents 1.4, which further supports the scenario of the visitors maintaining their lead. The league is, however, low-scoring, averaging 1.9 goals per match, with both teams scoring in only 30% of games. Therefore, a controlled away win is more likely than an open exchange of chances. The strongest HT/FT scenario is thus Lusitano Évora 1911 leading at the break and securing the win at the final whistle: 2/2.