Calvary vs NEC: match statistics

NEC holds a clear advantage in the table and in the numbers: they are 5th with 13 wins this season, while Calvary sit 15th with just 3 wins and 12 goals scored versus 28 for NEC. Form also favors the visitors — 3 wins in the last 5 matches and an average of 2.0 points per game in that period, while Calvary have 2 wins and 1.6 points on average. Defensively NEC is more stable: 20 goals conceded this season versus 36 for Calvary and an average of 0.57 goals conceded away compared to 0.69 conceded by Calvary at home. Calvary generate more chances (on average 16 shots and 4 on target at home) and have a higher home xG (1.91 vs 1.39 xG for the visitors), but 62% of their home matches end with them failing to score and the reported shot conversion is 0%, which significantly reduces their real threat on goal. Considering the superior goals stats (28–12), higher away win percentage (NEC 43% vs Calvary 23% at home) and better recent form, I predict a win for the visitors.

Seasonal BTTS rates are 43% for Calvary and 36% for NEC, with the league average at 38%, implying a baseline probability for BTTS - Yes around 38–43%. However, in the last 5 matches both teams have BTTS only 20% with goals per game of 0.6 (Calvary) and 0.8 (NEC), indicating a recent trend of low Goal/Goal occurrences. Despite xG of 1.48 (Calvary) and 1.39 (NEC), actual season goals are lower at 1.14 and 0.86; differences of -0.34 and -0.53 point to significant chance wastage and a reduced likelihood of mutual scoring. Both teams keep a clean sheet in 57% of matches, while the league proportion of matches without conceding is as high as 78%, further increasing the probability of a No Goal outcome for BTTS. Considering the low recent BTTS of 20%, high clean sheet rates (57–78%) and negative conversion relative to xG, I project BTTS=No at 70% versus 30% for BTTS=Yes.

I project 1.05 goals for Calvary and 0.80 for NEC (total 1.85). These values are based on seasonal averages (Calvary scores 1.14, NEC 0.86) and xG (Calvary 1.48, NEC 1.39), adjusted for the last 5 matches where the home side’s xG dropped to 0.53 while NEC’s is 1.10. Additional support for a low total is NEC’s defense, conceding only 0.57 goals per game on the season, and the low league mean of 2.06 goals per match. Under a Poisson model, a total of 1.85 yields roughly a 55% probability of Over 1.5, ~28% for Over 2.5 and ~12% for Over 3.5 (corresponding unders 45/72/88%), so the strongest signal is Under 2.5.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). Half-time draws occur very frequently — hosts were level at the break in 57% of matches and visitors in 62% — while clean sheets at half-time are 86% for Calvary and 85% for NEC, suggesting first goals often come after the interval. Calvary hold a slight seasonal edge: they average 1.14 goals per game versus NEC’s 0.86, home xG is 1.48 against the visitors’ 1.39, and hosts average 10.14 shots versus 9.42 with conversion rates of 11% vs 10%. Additionally, the hosts score heavily after restarts — 5 goals in minutes 61–75 versus 2 for the visitors, and average second-half goals for the home side are 1.21 vs 1.08 for NEC — which boosts the probability of a turnaround in favor of Calvary after the break. Based on this, my HT/FT distribution is: X/1 34% as the strongest signal, X/X 18% and 1/1 18% as the main alternatives, with remaining scenarios accounting for 30%.