Cambuur vs Excelsior: match statistics

Excelsior are in significantly better form: in their last five matches, they have recorded 3 wins and 2 draws without suffering a single defeat, collecting 11 points. During the same period, Cambuur won just 1 match, drew twice and suffered 2 defeats, earning 5 points. The visitors scored as many as 14 goals in five appearances, averaging 2.8 per match, while the hosts scored 6 goals, averaging 1.2. Cambuur’s defense conceded 9 goals during this run, compared with 7 for Excelsior. Given the visitors’ clearly superior attacking efficiency, they have the better chance of securing a win. However, the small gap in the standings—Cambuur in fourth and Excelsior in fifth—also increases the likelihood of a closely contested match and a draw.

The latest form clearly supports goals from both sides: Cambuur recorded BTTS in 100% of their last 5 matches, while Excelsior did so in 80%. During this period, the hosts scored an average of 1.2 goals but conceded 1.8, meaning that despite their weaker attacking output, they regularly allowed opponents to create chances. Excelsior scored as many as 14 goals in five matches, averaging 2.8 per game, while Cambuur conceded 9 goals in total. At the same time, Cambuur averaged 1.79 xG, more than Excelsior allowed their opponents to generate (1.34 xG), which further strengthens the hosts' chances of scoring at least once. The BTTS - Yes scenario is therefore more likely than BTTS - No, which means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

Cambuur’s last five matches produced an average of 3.0 goals, with the team scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.8 goals per game. Excelsior’s matches were even more open: the team averaged 2.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, resulting in 4.2 total goals per match. Both sides have high chance-creation figures, with an xG of 1.79 for Cambuur and 1.66 for Excelsior across their last five appearances. At least three goals were scored in 60% of the hosts’ recent matches and 80% of the visitors’ games, while both teams scored in 100% and 80% of those respective samples. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as Excelsior’s attacking form and Cambuur’s vulnerable defense clearly reduce the likelihood of a one-goal maximum scenario.

Excelsior have been clearly stronger in their last five matches, averaging 2.8 goals compared with Cambuur’s 1.2 and remaining unbeaten, while the hosts have lost 40% of their games. The visitors tend to start matches well, averaging 1.2 goals before half-time compared with just 0.25 for Cambuur, while the hosts have been trailing at the break in as many as 50% of these matches. However, a draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Excelsior were level at the break in 60% of their recent appearances and Cambuur in 50%. After the interval, the visitors’ attacking advantage should decide the result: they average 1.6 goals in second halves, compared with Cambuur’s 1.0, and at least two goals were scored after half-time in 80% of their matches. The HT/FT scenario of a draw at half-time followed by an Excelsior win best combines their strong late-game efficiency with Cambuur’s problems in the early stages of matches.